Whitbread PLC (WTB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 3.8B GBX · ISIN GB00B1KJJ408
What is Whitbread PLC really worth?
A solid business, but trading 32% above our fair value of £18.06.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −5.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (£15.12 to £27.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £20.14 – £33.56 · fair‑value band £15.12 – £27.66 · the £23.80 price screens above the £18.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Whitbread PLC (WTB) currently trades at £23.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £18.06, implying the stock looks roughly 31.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £23.64 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the £23.80 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at £4.63, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Whitbread PLC generated revenue of £2.9B at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. Net debt stands at £5.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £15.12 (bear case) to £27.66 (bull case); at £23.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −24%, WTB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 6 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.1288 per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£23.64) versus Growth DCF (£4.63). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Whitbread plc operates hotels and restaurants in the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland, and internationally. The company operates hotels under the Premier Inn, ZIP by Premier Inn, and hub by Premier Inn brands.
Full company description
Whitbread plc operates hotels and restaurants in the United Kingdom, Germany, Ireland, and internationally. The company operates hotels under the Premier Inn, ZIP by Premier Inn, and hub by Premier Inn brands. It also operates restaurants under the Brewers Fayre, Beefeater, Cookhouse and Pub, Bar+Block Steakhouse, Thyme, Whitebread Inns, and Table Table brands. Whitbread plc was founded in 1742 and is headquartered in Dunstable, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Whitbread PLC reported revenue of £2.9B in FY2026 versus £1.7B in FY2022, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was £213M in FY2026, compounding +49.6%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +0.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
WTB screens 32% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $341.76 | $132.35 | −61% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $314.35 | $122.07 | −61% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $161.82 | $85.18 | −47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $178.37 | $46.78 | −74% |
| H World Group HTHT | $41.25 | $47.78 | +16% |
| Accor SA AC | €46.52 | €36.87 | −21% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹723.35 | ₹253.67 | −65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $74.02 | $23.55 | −68% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 139,100 KRW | 36,890 KRW | −73% |
| Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH | $105.54 | $61.72 | −42% |
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