Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $74.2B · ISIN US43300A2033
What is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc really worth?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc
HLT · US
A strong business, but trading 158% above our fair value of $122.07.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated today
Share price +0.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($122.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($57.45 to $122.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $108.41 – $350.22 · fair‑value band $57.45 – $122.07 · the $314.35 price screens above the $122.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) currently trades at $314.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $122.07, implying the stock looks roughly 157.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $120.80 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $314.35 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $52.61, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc generated revenue of $5.1B at a net margin of 30.4%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. Net debt stands at $14.7B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 47.9. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $57.45 (bear case) to $122.07 (bull case); at $314.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −61%, HLT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.07 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($120.80) versus Dividend Discount ($10.11). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks.
Full company description
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names. The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc reported revenue of $12.0B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2021, a compound +20.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +37.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +5.8 % · buybacks/dilution +3.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HLT screens 158% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) As Its Asset Light Growth Story Keeps Fair Value In Focus
- Hilton (HLT) Stock Looks Fully Valued After a 165% Five Year Run
- Implied Volatility Surging for Hilton Stock Options
- Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Up 3.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
Peer Group
Lodging · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $341.76 | $132.35 | −61% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $161.82 | $85.18 | −47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $178.37 | $46.78 | −74% |
| H World Group HTHT | $41.25 | $47.78 | +16% |
| Accor SA AC | €46.52 | €36.87 | −21% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹723.35 | ₹253.67 | −65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $74.02 | $23.55 | −68% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 139,100 KRW | 36,890 KRW | −73% |
| Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH | $105.54 | $61.72 | −42% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 18.88 SAR | 11.64 SAR | −38% |
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