Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $74.2B
Hilton Worldwide Holdings
HLT · US
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 14, 2026, revised from $123.67 to $122.02 (−1.3%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −1.5% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 62% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($122.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($57.43 to $122.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $108.41 – $350.22 · fair‑value band $57.43 – $122.02 · the $320.82 price screens above the $122.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) currently trades at $320.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $122.02, implying the stock looks roughly 62.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hilton Worldwide Holdings generated revenue of $5.1B at a net margin of 30.4%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. Net debt stands at $14.7B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 48.9. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $57.43 (bear case) to $122.02 (bull case); at $320.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -62%, HLT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($120.74) versus Dividend Discount ($10.11). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks.
Full company description
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., a hospitality company, engages in managing, franchising, and leasing hotels and resorts. It operates in two segments, Management and Franchise, and Ownership. The company engages in the hotel management and licensing of its brand names, trademarks, and service marks. It operates a brand portfolio of luxury, lifestyle, full service, focused service, all-suites hotel, and timeshare under the Waldorf Astoria Hotels & Resorts, LXR Hotels & Resorts, Conrad Hotels & Resorts, Signia by Hilton, NoMad, Canopy by Hilton, Graduate by Hilton, Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree by Hilton, Curio Collection by Hilton, Tapestry Collection by Hilton, Outset Collection by Hilton, Embassy Suites by Hilton, Homewood Suites by Hilton, Home2 Suites by Hilton, LivSmart Studios by Hilton, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton by Hilton, Tru by Hilton, Spark by Hilton, Hilton Grand Vacations, Small Luxury Hotels of the World, AutoCamp, and Hilton Honors brand names. The company has operations in North America, South America, and Central America, including various Caribbean nations; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and the Asia Pacific. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hilton Worldwide Holdings reported revenue of $12.0B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2021, a compound +20.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +37.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +3.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HLT screens 62% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- The Bull Case For Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) Could Change Following Strong Q2 2026 Results And Upgraded Guidance
- Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) Could Be 9% Undervalued On Earnings And Buybacks
- Tapestry Collection by Hilton Debuts in Vietnam with Opening of NHAAN Resort & Spa Hoi An
Peer Group
Lodging · 167 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $354.58 | $132.35 | -63% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $161.82 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $178.37 | $46.78 | -74% |
| H World Group HTHT | $41.25 | $47.78 | +16% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹724.00 | ₹253.67 | -65% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 118,200 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -69% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
| Makkah Construction and Development Company 4100 | 81.95 SAR | 36.25 SAR | -56% |
| Minor International Public Company MINT | 22.90 THB | 32.82 THB | +43% |
| Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co 600754 | ¥19.48 | ¥22.37 | +15% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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