Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SA · Market cap 18.8B SAR (≈ $5.0B) · ISIN SA000A0MR864
What is Jabal Omar Development Company really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 55% above our fair value of 11.64 SAR.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +12.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (14.56 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.04 SAR – 35.75 SAR · fair‑value band 8.73 SAR – 14.56 SAR · the 18.01 SAR price screens above the 11.64 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Jabal Omar Development Company (4250) currently trades at 18.01 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.64 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 54.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 19.08 SAR per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the 18.01 SAR price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 7.68 SAR, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Revenue grew 82.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at 8.7B SAR. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 13.5. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 8.73 SAR (bear case) to 14.56 SAR (bull case); at 18.01 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −35%, 4250 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.9000 SAR per share, which is 7.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (19.08 SAR) versus Dividend Discount (0.6900 SAR). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (65).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Jabal Omar Development Company operates as a real estate development company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Operating Hotels, Commercial Centers, and Properties for Development and Sale segments. The company operates and leases rooms, parking facilities, and commercial shopping malls.
Full company description
Jabal Omar Development Company operates as a real estate development company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Operating Hotels, Commercial Centers, and Properties for Development and Sale segments. The company operates and leases rooms, parking facilities, and commercial shopping malls. It also engages in construction and development of property and sale of completed dwellings; and selling food and beverages. In addition, the company operates hotels under the Jabal Omar Makkah Address, Jabal Omar Makkah Jumeirah, Jabal Omar Makkah Conrad, Jabal Omar Makkah Hyatt Regency, Suites Jabal Omar Makkah Hilton, Hotel & Convention Jabal Omar Makkah, Jabal Omar Makkah Marriott, Jabal Omar Makkah DoubleTree by Hilton, and Rotana Jabal Omar Makkah names. The company was founded in 2006 and is based in Mecca, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jabal Omar Development Company reported revenue of 2.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 310M SAR in FY2021, a compound +61.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B SAR in FY2025, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution −2.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
4250 screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $341.76 | $132.35 | −61% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $314.35 | $122.07 | −61% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $161.82 | $85.18 | −47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $178.37 | $46.78 | −74% |
| H World Group HTHT | $41.25 | $47.78 | +16% |
| Accor SA AC | €46.52 | €36.87 | −21% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹723.35 | ₹253.67 | −65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $74.02 | $23.55 | −68% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 139,100 KRW | 36,890 KRW | −73% |
| Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH | $105.54 | $61.72 | −42% |
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