Marriott International Inc (MAR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $95.8B · ISIN US5719032022
What is Marriott International Inc really worth?
Marriott International Inc
MAR · US
A solid business, but trading 154% above our fair value of $132.35.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −2.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($206.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($67.02 to $206.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $124.88 – $402.54 · fair‑value band $67.02 – $206.21 · the $336.07 price screens above the $132.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Marriott International Inc (MAR) currently trades at $336.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $132.35, implying the stock looks roughly 153.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $189.33 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $336.07 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $40.78, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Revenue grew 12.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.5%. Net debt stands at $16.7B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 35.2. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $67.02 (bear case) to $206.21 (bull case); at $336.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −61%, MAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.67 per share, which is 3.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($189.33) versus Dividend Discount ($40.78). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchise, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the U.S. & Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates properties under JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St.
Full company description
Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchise, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the U.S. & Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates properties under JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St. Regis, EDITION, Bvlgari, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, Autograph Collection, Renaissance Hotels, Le Méridien, Delta Hotels by Marriott, MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy, Tribute Portfolio, Gaylord Hotels, Design Hotels, Marriott Executive Apartments, Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy, Courtyard by Marriott, Fairfield by Marriott, Residence Inn by Marriott, SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Four Points by Sheraton, TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Aloft Hotels, AC Hotels by Marriott, Moxy Hotels, Element Hotels, Protea Hotels by Marriott, citizen, City Express by Marriott, and Four Points Flex by Sheraton brand names, as well as operates residences, timeshares, and yachts. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Marriott International Inc reported revenue of $26.2B in FY2025 versus $13.9B in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.6B in FY2025, compounding +24.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MAR screens 154% overvalued. Compare with Hilton Worldwide Holdings →
Peer Group
Lodging · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $314.35 | $122.07 | −61% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $161.82 | $85.18 | −47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $178.37 | $46.78 | −74% |
| H World Group HTHT | $41.25 | $47.78 | +16% |
| Accor SA AC | €46.52 | €36.87 | −21% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹723.35 | ₹253.67 | −65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $74.02 | $23.55 | −68% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 139,100 KRW | 36,890 KRW | −73% |
| Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH | $105.54 | $61.72 | −42% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 18.88 SAR | 11.64 SAR | −38% |
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