Whitehaven Coal Ltd (WHC) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · AU · Market cap A$6.1B (≈ $4.4B) · ISIN AU000000WHC8

What is Whitehaven Coal Ltd really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
• The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$1.41 – A$9.84 · fair‑value band A$8.29 – A$13.81 · the A$8.39 price screens below the A$11.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (WHC) currently trades at A$8.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$11.05, implying the stock looks roughly 24.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$22.20 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$8.39 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$4.64, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Whitehaven Coal Ltd generated revenue of A$4.9B at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue declined 27.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. Net debt stands at A$827M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$8.29 (bear case) to A$13.81 (bull case); at A$8.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 32%, WHC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.6900 per share, which is 6.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$22.20) versus Asset-Based (A$4.64). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Whitehaven Coal Limited develops and operates coal mines in Queensland and New South Wales. The company produces metallurgical and thermal coal. It operates mines, including open-cut and underground, located in the Gunnedah Coal Basin in New South Wales.

Full company description

Whitehaven Coal Limited develops and operates coal mines in Queensland and New South Wales. The company produces metallurgical and thermal coal. It operates mines, including open-cut and underground, located in the Gunnedah Coal Basin in New South Wales. The company sells coal in Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Europe, and internationally. Whitehaven Coal Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Whitehaven Coal Ltd reported revenue of A$5.8B in FY2025 versus A$1.6B in FY2021, a compound +39.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$649M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 99 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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