Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$6.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$11.05 to A$8.02 (−27.4%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from A$6.01 (bear) to A$10.02 (bull), base A$8.02. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 60/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.12 – A$9.84 · fair‑value band A$6.01 – A$10.02 · the A$7.69 price screens below the A$8.02 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC) currently trades at A$7.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$8.02, implying the stock looks roughly 4.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Whitehaven Coal Limited generated revenue of A$4.9B at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue declined 27.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. Net debt stands at A$827M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$6.01 (bear case) to A$10.02 (bull case); at A$7.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -5% fair-value upside, at 4%, WHC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$22.20) versus Asset-Based (A$4.64). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Whitehaven Coal Limited develops and operates coal mines in Queensland and New South Wales. The company produces metallurgical and thermal coal. It operates mines, including open-cut and underground, located in the Gunnedah Coal Basin in New South Wales.
Full company description
Whitehaven Coal Limited develops and operates coal mines in Queensland and New South Wales. The company produces metallurgical and thermal coal. It operates mines, including open-cut and underground, located in the Gunnedah Coal Basin in New South Wales. The company sells coal in Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, India, Europe, and internationally. Whitehaven Coal Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Whitehaven Coal Limited reported revenue of A$5.8B in FY2025 versus A$1.6B in FY2021, a compound +39.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$649M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 99 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥44.07 | ¥34.97 | -21% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹2,965 | ₹891.11 | -70% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥25.08 | ¥23.90 | -5% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥22.09 | ¥13.24 | -40% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹409.30 | ₹464.01 | +13% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥13.93 | ¥13.91 | -0% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥26.48 | ¥20.72 | -22% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.27 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,520 IDR | 3,037 IDR | +21% |
| PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk AADI | 9,350 IDR | 13,935 IDR | +49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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