Welltower Inc (WELL) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $163B · ISIN US95040Q1040
What is Welltower Inc really worth?
Welltower Inc
WELL · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 578% above our fair value of $35.57.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +4.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.59 – $252.07 · fair‑value band $26.35 – $35.57 · the $241.12 price screens above the $35.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Welltower Inc (WELL) currently trades at $241.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.57, implying the stock looks roughly 578.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $70.62 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $241.12 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $12.65, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Welltower Inc generated revenue of $11.8B at a net margin of 12.0%. Revenue grew 38.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at $16.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $26.35 (bear case) to $35.57 (bull case); at $241.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −85%, WELL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($70.62) versus Growth DCF ($12.65). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Welltower Inc. is a S&P 500 company, is positioned at the center of the silver economy, focusing on rental housing for aging seniors across the United States, United Kingdom and Canada.
Full company description
Welltower Inc. is a S&P 500 company, is positioned at the center of the silver economy, focusing on rental housing for aging seniors across the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. Our portfolio of 2,000+ seniors and wellness housing communities are positioned at the intersection of housing and hospitality, creating vibrant communities for mature renters and older adults. We believe our real estate portfolio is unmatched, located in highly attractive micro markets with stunning built environments. Yet, we are an unusual real estate organization as we view ourselves as an operating company in a real estate wrapper, driven by highly aligned partnerships and an unconventional culture. Through our disciplined approach to capital allocation powered by our Data Science platform and superior operating results driven by the Welltower Business System - our end-to-end operating platform - we aspire to deliver long-term compounding of per share growth for our existing investors, our North Star. Welltower Inc. was incorporated in 1970 in Delaware and is based in Toledo, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Welltower Inc reported revenue of $10.7B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was $937M in FY2025, compounding +29.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.1 % · buybacks/dilution −6.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
WELL screens 578% overvalued. Compare with Ventas, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
Peer Group
REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 25 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Healthcare Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ventas, Inc VTR | $89.01 | $17.91 | −80% |
| Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc OHI | $45.99 | $29.19 | −37% |
| Healthpeak Properties, Inc DOC | $21.40 | $6.95 | −68% |
| American Healthcare REIT, Inc AHR | $56.19 | $10.94 | −81% |
| CareTrust REIT, Inc CTRE | $39.61 | $22.79 | −42% |
| Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR | $19.39 | $20.60 | +6% |
| Aedifica NV AED | €66.55 | €34.97 | −47% |
| Chartwell Retirement Residences CSHUN | C$21.17 | C$3.49 | −84% |
| Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc SBRA | $20.39 | $10.49 | −49% |
| National Health Investors, Inc NHI | $72.27 | $64.82 | −10% |
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