CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $8.8B · ISIN US14174T1079
What is CareTrust REIT Inc. really worth?
CareTrust REIT Inc.
CTRE · US
A solid business, but trading 104% above our fair value of $19.37.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated today
Share price −3.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.32 – $43.40 · fair‑value band $14.53 – $24.22 · the $39.61 price screens above the $19.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) currently trades at $39.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.37, implying the stock looks roughly 104.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $40.14 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $39.61 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.44, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, CareTrust REIT Inc. generated revenue of $523M at a net margin of 64.1%. Revenue grew 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at $696M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.53 (bear case) to $24.22 (bull case); at $39.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −51%, CTRE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1257 per share, which is 0.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($40.14) versus Asset-Based ($11.44). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered, publicly traded REIT engaged in the ownership, acquisition, financing, development and leasing of skilled nursing, senior housing and other healthcare-related properties.
Full company description
CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered, publicly traded REIT engaged in the ownership, acquisition, financing, development and leasing of skilled nursing, senior housing and other healthcare-related properties. As of December 31, 2025, CareTrust REIT owned, directly or indirectly in consolidated joint ventures, and leased to independent operators, 407 skilled nursing facilities (each, a SNF), senior housing communities and other properties consisting of 37,628 operational beds and units located in 32 states and the United Kingdom, with the highest concentration of properties by rental income located in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee. As of December 31, 2025, we also had other real estate related investments consisting of four preferred equity investments, 16 real estate secured loans receivable and five mezzanine loans receivable with a carrying value of 899.3 million US dollars and one financing receivable with a carrying value of 92.2 million US dollars. CareTrust REIT, Inc. was established and incorporated on October 29, 2013 and is based in Dana Point, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CareTrust REIT Inc. reported revenue of $477M in FY2025 versus $190M in FY2021, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was $321M in FY2025, compounding +45.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +15.4 % · buybacks/dilution −13.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CTRE screens 104% overvalued. Compare with Welltower Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- FVR vs. CTRE: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
- CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Is Down 5.9% After Hiking 2026 Earnings Guidance And Deploying US$900 Million
- CareTrust REIT Well Positioned to Deploy Capital Accretively, RBC Says
- CareTrust REIT cut to Hold equivalent at RBC Capital
Peer Group
REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 25 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Healthcare Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Welltower Inc WELL | $238.07 | $41.85 | −82% |
| Ventas, Inc VTR | $89.01 | $17.91 | −80% |
| Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc OHI | $45.99 | $29.19 | −37% |
| Healthpeak Properties, Inc DOC | $21.40 | $6.95 | −68% |
| American Healthcare REIT, Inc AHR | $56.19 | $10.94 | −81% |
| Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR | $19.39 | $20.60 | +6% |
| Aedifica NV AED | €66.55 | €34.97 | −47% |
| Chartwell Retirement Residences CSHUN | C$21.17 | C$3.49 | −84% |
| Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc SBRA | $20.39 | $10.49 | −49% |
| National Health Investors, Inc NHI | $72.27 | $64.82 | −10% |
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