Ventas Inc (VTR) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $42.1B · ISIN US92276F1003
What is Ventas Inc really worth?
Ventas Inc
VTR · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 505% above our fair value of $15.22.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +1.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $32.05 – $100.53 · fair‑value band $10.03 – $15.22 · the $92.11 price screens above the $15.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ventas Inc (VTR) currently trades at $92.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.22, implying the stock looks roughly 505.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $34.91 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $92.11 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $8.63, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ventas Inc generated revenue of $6.1B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 21.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. Net debt stands at $12.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.03 (bear case) to $15.22 (bull case); at $92.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −83%, VTR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($34.91) versus Growth DCF ($8.63). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ventas, Inc. is a leading S&P 500 real estate investment trust enabling exceptional environments that benefit a large and growing aging population. With approximately 1,400 properties in North America and the United Kingdom, Ventas occupies an essential role in the longevity economy.
Full company description
Ventas, Inc. is a leading S&P 500 real estate investment trust enabling exceptional environments that benefit a large and growing aging population. With approximately 1,400 properties in North America and the United Kingdom, Ventas occupies an essential role in the longevity economy. The Company's growth is fueled by its more than 850 senior housing communities, which provide valuable services to residents and enable them to thrive in supported environments. Ventas aims to deliver outsized performance by leveraging its operational expertise, data-driven insights from its Ventas OI platform, extensive relationships and strong financial position. The Ventas portfolio also includes outpatient medical buildings, research centers and healthcare facilities. Ventas's seasoned team of talented professionals shares a commitment to excellence, integrity and a common purpose of helping people live longer, healthier, happier lives. Ventas, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Chicago, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ventas Inc reported revenue of $5.8B in FY2025 versus $3.8B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was $251M in FY2025, compounding +50.5%/yr from FY2021.
VTR screens 505% overvalued. Compare with Welltower Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ventas (VTR) is a Top Dividend Stock Right Now: Should You Buy?
- Ventas (VTR) Up 1.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
- Ventas (VTR) Could Be a Great Choice
- Ventas Releases 2025-2026 Corporate Sustainability Report
Peer Group
REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 25 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Healthcare Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Welltower Inc WELL | $238.07 | $41.85 | −82% |
| Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc OHI | $45.99 | $29.19 | −37% |
| Healthpeak Properties, Inc DOC | $21.40 | $6.95 | −68% |
| American Healthcare REIT, Inc AHR | $56.19 | $10.94 | −81% |
| CareTrust REIT, Inc CTRE | $39.61 | $22.79 | −42% |
| Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR | $19.39 | $20.60 | +6% |
| Aedifica NV AED | €66.55 | €34.97 | −47% |
| Chartwell Retirement Residences CSHUN | C$21.17 | C$3.49 | −84% |
| Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc SBRA | $20.39 | $10.49 | −49% |
| National Health Investors, Inc NHI | $72.27 | $64.82 | −10% |
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