UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · FI · Market cap €12.4B · ISIN FI0009005987
What is UPM-Kymmene Oyj really worth?
A solid business, but trading 25% above our fair value of €19.43.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from €14.21 to €19.43 (+36.7%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +3.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.56 – €31.82 · fair‑value band €14.58 – €25.27 · the €24.24 price screens above the €19.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) currently trades at €24.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €19.43, implying the stock looks roughly 24.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €15.42 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €24.24 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €11.07, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, UPM-Kymmene Oyj generated revenue of €9.5B at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue declined 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at €3.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €14.58 (bear case) to €25.27 (bull case); at €24.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −20%, UPM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€15.42) versus Earnings-Based (€0.8500). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. It operates through UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Adhesive Materials, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywood, and Other Operations segments.
Full company description
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. It operates through UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Adhesive Materials, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywood, and Other Operations segments. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and construction industries; and wood-based renewable diesel and renewable naphtha for transport and petrochemical industry. It also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and nuclear power plants; provides financial portfolio management services, as well as engages in forestry water protection. Further, it provides plywood and veneer products for construction, vehicle flooring, liquefied natural gas shipbuilding, parquet manufacturing, and other industrial applications; wood and wood-based biomass, and forestry services for forest investors and owners; biomedical products, such as nano-fibrillar cellulose for clinical and life science applications; wood-based lignin products for industrial use; and wood-based biochemicals for replacing fossil-based raw materials. It serves distributors, industrial users, publishers, cataloguers, retailers, printing houses, merchants, converters, and label stock manufacturers; label printers; brand owners; and producers of tissue, board, specialty, and graphic paper. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
UPM-Kymmene Oyj reported revenue of €9.7B in FY2025 versus €9.8B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was €480M in FY2025, compounding −21.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
UPM screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Suzano S.A →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suzano S.A SUZ | $9.15 | $24.16 | +164% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 111.95 | kr 45.12 | −60% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 323.00 | kr 217.72 | −33% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.92 | HK$8.74 | +10% |
| PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP | 8,800 IDR | 17,945 IDR | +104% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,049 CLP | 1,281 CLP | +22% |
| The Navigator Company NVG | €3.24 | €2.65 | −18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.11 | ¥21.06 | +0% |
| Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM | €20.70 | €24.73 | +19% |
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