Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$33.0B (≈ $4.2B) · ISIN BMG653181005
What is Nine Dragons Paper Holdings really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 11% below our fair value of HK$7.43.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −18.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.74 – HK$11.97 · fair‑value band HK$5.82 – HK$8.90 · the HK$6.63 price screens below the HK$7.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689) currently trades at HK$6.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.43, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$8.01 per share, and 7 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$6.63 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.45, and 5 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nine Dragons Paper Holdings generated revenue of HK$67.0B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 11.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at HK$66.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$5.82 (bear case) to HK$8.90 (bull case); at HK$6.63, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at 12%, 2689 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.5600 per share, which is 7.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$8.01) versus Earnings-Based (HK$3.45). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products and pulp in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products and pulp in the People's Republic of China. The company offers kraft, test, white top, and coated linerboard, as well as bleached folding boxboard; corrugating medium; uncoated wood free and office paper; coated duplex board; and gypsum board cover paper. It also provides container board, kraft paper, and packaging products; corrugated sheet, cardboard, and carton box; kraft paper bag; color printing; and laminated paper products. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, the People's Republic of China. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is a subsidiary of Best Result Holdings Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings reported revenue of HK$63.2B in FY2025 versus HK$61.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.2B in FY2025, compounding −25.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.7 % · buybacks/dilution −1.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €24.31 | €14.21 | −42% |
| Suzano S.A SUZ | $9.15 | $24.16 | +164% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAA | kr 112.50 | kr 45.12 | −60% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 323.00 | kr 217.72 | −33% |
| PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP | 8,800 IDR | 17,945 IDR | +104% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,049 CLP | 1,281 CLP | +22% |
| The Navigator Company NVG | €3.24 | €2.65 | −18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.11 | ¥21.06 | +0% |
| Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM | €20.70 | €24.73 | +19% |
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