Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (2689) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$33.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +10.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from HK$5.82 (bear) to HK$8.89 (bull), base HK$7.43. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 29/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.74 – HK$11.97 · fair‑value band HK$5.82 – HK$8.89 · the HK$8.08 price screens above the HK$7.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (2689) currently trades at HK$8.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.43, implying the stock looks roughly 8.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited generated revenue of HK$67.0B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 11.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at HK$66.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$5.82 (bear case) to HK$8.89 (bull case); at HK$8.08, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 142% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -8%, 2689 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (HK$8.01) versus Earnings-Based (HK$3.45). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products and pulp in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products and pulp in the People's Republic of China. The company offers kraft, test, white top, and coated linerboard, as well as bleached folding boxboard; corrugating medium; uncoated wood free and office paper; coated duplex board; and gypsum board cover paper. It also provides container board, kraft paper, and packaging products; corrugated sheet, cardboard, and carton box; kraft paper bag; color printing; and laminated paper products. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, the People's Republic of China. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is a subsidiary of Best Result Holdings Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited reported revenue of HK$63.2B in FY2025 versus HK$61.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.2B in FY2025, compounding −25.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 2689: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.55 | R$3.80 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.18 | €14.21 | -39% |
| Suzano S.A SUZ | $8.02 | $23.77 | +196% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 109.40 | kr 49.40 | -55% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 323.20 | kr 217.72 | -33% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,000 CLP | 1,253 CLP | +25% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.09 | ¥21.06 | -0% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 77.60 | kr 48.60 | -37% |
| PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk TKIM | 7,575 IDR | 8,397 IDR | +11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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