Semapa (SEM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · PT · Market cap €1.8B · ISIN PTSEM0AM0004
What is Semapa really worth?
A solid business, trading 16% below our fair value of €24.73.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (€17.38 to €35.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.62 – €23.76 · fair‑value band €17.38 – €35.30 · the €20.85 price screens below the €24.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Semapa (SEM) currently trades at €20.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €24.73, implying the stock looks roughly 15.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €33.33 per share, and 16 of the 22 models we run sit above the €20.85 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €14.60, and 6 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Semapa generated revenue of €2.0B at a net margin of 30.9%. Revenue declined 34.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at €1.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €17.38 (bear case) to €35.30 (bull case); at €20.85, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 19%, SEM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€33.33) versus Earnings-Based (€0.6500). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments.
Full company description
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments. The company produces and sells writing and printing thin paper, tissue paper, and moulded fibre packaging; researches, develops, produces, and sells forestry and agricultural products; and produces and sells bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP), cork, and pine wood products, as well as electric and thermal energy. It is also involved in the production and sale of cement, ready-mixed concrete, aggregates, mortars, precast concrete, and hydraulic lime. In addition, the company engages in the production of aluminium e-bike frames; and the provision of services related to the recovery of animal by-products and food products containing animal-origin substances to produce fertilizers, animal feed, and biodiesel. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Semapa reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was €157M in FY2025, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €24.31 | €14.21 | −42% |
| Suzano S.A SUZ | $9.15 | $24.16 | +164% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAA | kr 112.50 | kr 45.12 | −60% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥13.94 | ¥17.29 | +24% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 323.00 | kr 217.72 | −33% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.92 | HK$8.74 | +10% |
| PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP | 8,800 IDR | 17,945 IDR | +104% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,049 CLP | 1,281 CLP | +22% |
| The Navigator Company NVG | €3.24 | €2.65 | −18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.11 | ¥21.06 | +0% |
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