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Semapa (SEM) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · PT · Market cap €1.8B · ISIN PTSEM0AM0004

What is Semapa really worth?

S Semapa SEM · LS
Price€20.85
Fair Value€24.73
Upside+18.6%
Quality53/100

A solid business, trading 16% below our fair value of €24.73.

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Strengths

Highly profitable · 30.9% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/12)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.5 %/yr)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 23 out of 100

For context

·3.00% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range €17.38 – €35.30

Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (€17.38 to €35.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€23.76 €7.62 Fair Value €24.73 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €7.62 – €23.76 · fair‑value band €17.38 – €35.30 · the €20.85 price screens below the €24.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Semapa (SEM) currently trades at €20.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €24.73, implying the stock looks roughly 15.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €33.33 per share, and 16 of the 22 models we run sit above the €20.85 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €14.60, and 6 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Semapa generated revenue of €2.0B at a net margin of 30.9%. Revenue declined 34.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at €1.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €17.38 (bear case) to €35.30 (bull case); at €20.85, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 19%, SEM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €20.14 €28.90 €41.93 80
Growth DCF €20.85 €29.09 €40.59 79
Residual Income €17.53 €18.68 €20.62 76
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €20.14 €28.90 €41.93 80
Owner Earnings €4.58 €8.81 €15.10 74
5Y Revenue Exit €14.16 €23.13 €35.12 72
5Y EBITDA Exit €22.58 €37.62 €55.96 74
5Y P/E Exit €15.29 €25.08 €35.79 70
10Y Revenue Exit €16.02 €23.84 €32.69 67
10Y EBITDA Exit €21.26 €32.63 €45.69 68
10Y P/E Exit €17.15 €25.02 €33.11 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €13.33 €25.00 €31.06 66
EPV €0.6500 €1.71 68
Multiples
P/E Multiple €25.00 €33.33 €41.66 63
P/S Multiple €25.00 €33.33 €41.66 58
P/B Multiple €25.00 €33.33 €41.66 55
EV/EBIT €14.53 €22.69 €30.84 65
EV/EBITDA €29.71 €42.92 €56.13 67
EV/Revenue €11.27 €20.35 €29.44 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €10.90 €14.60 €21.79 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €20.85 €29.09 €40.59 79
Rev-Margin DCF €14.16 €23.75 €35.03 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income €17.53 €18.68 €20.62 76
ROIC Compounder €0.6500 €1.71 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €18.01 €25.73 €33.44 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (€33.33) versus Earnings-Based (€0.6500). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 45.3
P/S ratio 3.36 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €0.4600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.3
Dividend yield 3.0% payout 136%
Net margin 7.4% FY2025
Return on equity 5.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 4.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €2.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −34.4% 3y avg −12.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +12.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €282M FY2025
Net debt €1.0B FY2025 · ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments.

Full company description

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments. The company produces and sells writing and printing thin paper, tissue paper, and moulded fibre packaging; researches, develops, produces, and sells forestry and agricultural products; and produces and sells bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP), cork, and pine wood products, as well as electric and thermal energy. It is also involved in the production and sale of cement, ready-mixed concrete, aggregates, mortars, precast concrete, and hydraulic lime. In addition, the company engages in the production of aluminium e-bike frames; and the provision of services related to the recovery of animal by-products and food products containing animal-origin substances to produce fertilizers, animal feed, and biodiesel. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Semapa reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was €157M in FY2025, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€2.1B
Latest YoY
−1.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−12.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+7.9% (4.9 + 3.0)
Revenue −0.2%/yr
FY21 €2.1B
FY22 €3.1B
FY23 €2.7B
FY24 €2.1B
FY25 €2.1B
Net income −5.7%/yr
FY21 €198M
FY22 €307M
FY23 €245M
FY24 €233M
FY25 €157M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Semapa Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SEM

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +19% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Revenue growth −34% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.0% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.55× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 45.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 7.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE58 · sector 22
FUTURE0 · sector 1
PAST23 · sector 13
HEALTH73 · sector 92
DIVIDEND60 · sector 47

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €24.31 €14.21 −42%
Suzano S.A SUZ $9.15 $24.16 +164%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAA kr 112.50 kr 45.12 −60%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.94 ¥17.29 +24%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 323.00 kr 217.72 −33%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$7.92 HK$8.74 +10%
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 8,800 IDR 17,945 IDR +104%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,049 CLP 1,281 CLP +22%
The Navigator Company NVG €3.24 €2.65 −18%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥21.11 ¥21.06 +0%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Semapa (SEM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €24.73 versus a price of €20.85, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SEM?
Our model-based fair value for Semapa is €24.73 (as of Aug 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €20.85.
What is the quality score of SEM?
Semapa has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Semapa (SEM)?
Semapa reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SEM?
The net profit margin of Semapa is about 30.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Semapa pay a dividend?
Semapa currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.00% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 31, 2026).
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