Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $283B
Texas Instruments Incorporated
TXN · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $59.75 to $78.54 (+31.4%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −10.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($153.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($43.86 to $153.26). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $130.79 – $332.28 · fair‑value band $43.86 – $153.26 · the $273.43 price screens above the $78.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) currently trades at $273.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $78.54, implying the stock looks roughly 71.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Texas Instruments Incorporated generated revenue of $18.4B at a net margin of 29.1%. Revenue grew 18.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.4%. Net debt stands at $12.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $43.86 (bear case) to $153.26 (bull case); at $273.43, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -54% fair-value upside, at -71%, TXN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($117.89) versus Asset-Based ($11.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. It operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments.
Full company description
Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. It operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments. The Analog segment offers power products to manage power requirements across various voltage levels, including battery-management solutions, DC/DC switching regulators, AC/DC and isolated controllers and converters, power switches, linear regulators, voltage references, multiphase controllers and power stages, and lighting products. This segment also provides signal chain products that sense, condition, and measure real-world signals and convert them into data to be transferred or converted for further processing and control, such as amplifiers, data converters, interface products, motor drives, clocks, and logic and sensing products. The Embedded Processing segment offers microcontrollers, processors, wireless connectivity, and radar products; and applications processors for specific computing activity. It also provides DLP products primarily for use in projecting high-definition images; calculators; and application-specific integrated circuits. Its products are used in various markets, such as industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment, enterprise systems, calculators, and others. The company markets and sells its semiconductor products through direct sales and distributors, as well as through its website. Texas Instruments Incorporated was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Texas Instruments Incorporated reported revenue of $17.7B in FY2025 versus $18.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding −10.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TXN screens 71% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Meta Platforms, Texas Instruments, CrowdStrike and Weyco
- Top Research Reports for Meta, Texas Instruments & CrowdStrike
- Texas Instruments (TXN) Following GE Appliances Deal Is The Stock Still Undervalued
- Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Looks Stretched Against Its Fair Value
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 322 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $217.50 | $98.98 | -54% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $429.15 | $291.42 | -32% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €366.85 | €121.25 | -67% |
| Micron Technology, Inc 1MU | €802.10 | €185.67 | -77% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,504,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | -2% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €428.20 | €56.33 | -87% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$54.79 | C$11.71 | -79% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 4,015 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -61% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,024,000 KRW | 1,204,862 KRW | +18% |
| GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc 3986 | HK$515.00 | HK$274.86 | -47% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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