Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Texas Instruments Incorporated $81.75, price $281, upside -70.9%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $130.12 – $330.59 · fair‑value band $46.88 – $119.62 · the $280.65 price screens above the $81.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 7, 2026.
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Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. It operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments.
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The Analog segment offers power products to manage power requirements across various voltage levels, including battery-management solutions, DC/DC switching regulators, AC/DC and isolated controllers and converters, power switches, linear regulators, voltage references, multiphase controllers and power stages, and lighting products.
This segment also provides signal chain products that sense, condition, and measure real-world signals and convert them into data to be transferred or converted for further processing and control, such as amplifiers, data converters, interface products, motor drives, clocks, and logic and sensing products.
The Embedded Processing segment offers microcontrollers, processors, wireless connectivity, and radar products; and applications processors for specific computing activity.
It also provides DLP products primarily for use in projecting high-definition images; calculators; and application-specific integrated circuits.
Its products are used in various markets, such as industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment, enterprise systems, calculators, and others. The company markets and sells its semiconductor products through direct sales and distributors, as well as through its website.
Texas Instruments Incorporated was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) currently trades at $280.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $81.75, 70.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $117.49 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $280.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.94, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $46.88 (bear) to $119.62 (bull), the price of $280.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Texas Instruments Incorporated reported revenue of $17.7B in FY2025 versus $18.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding −10.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $258B · P/E ratio 43.0 · P/S ratio 12.2 · EPS (TTM) $6.52 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 28.3% · Return on equity 35.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 92 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −71%, TXN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$46.88Fair Value $81.75Bull$119.62
Price $280.65 · Upside -70.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7101 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$25.49$41.16$65.9479
Growth DCF$26.93$42.01$64.7577
Owner Earnings$23.66$38.56$62.1175
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$25.49$41.16$65.9479
Owner Earnings$23.66$38.56$62.1175
5Y Revenue Exit$37.80$65.29$100.4971
5Y EBITDA Exit$68.20$118.11$175.9374
5Y P/E Exit$66.19$114.62$164.5270
10Y Revenue Exit$31.21$55.16$84.0765
10Y EBITDA Exit$52.22$91.25$138.2967
10Y P/E Exit$50.95$88.86$130.0963
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$37.24$74.21$93.1766
EPV$46.88$57.15$66.2874
Multiples
P/E Multiple$115.00$153.33$191.6663
P/S Multiple$69.82$93.09$116.3758
P/B Multiple$69.82$93.09$116.3755
EV/EBIT$107.41$146.98$186.5566
EV/EBITDA$107.28$146.81$186.3467
EV/Revenue$48.71$74.43$100.1553
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$8.91$11.94$17.8254
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$26.93$42.01$64.7577
Rev-Margin DCF$37.80$65.63$95.7472
Economic Profit
Residual Income$31.61$37.34$58.4975
ROIC Compounder$48.70$62.01$76.0372
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$82.24$117.49$152.7367
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.8% vs 6.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 34%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.3% a year for the price and +11.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Texas Instruments shows a moderate moat driven by strengths in pricing and innovation, yet the assessment remains limited by thin data and sparse public signals.
Main risk: The capital-intensive buildout of new fabrication facilities risks weighing on free cash flow if utilization does not scale reliably.
Texas Instruments is ramping new U.S. 300mm fabs that cut production costs by about 40 percent per chip and give it greater control over supply. Recent quarters show industrial and data-center demand helping fill capacity, yet the capital-intensive buildout still risks weighing on free cash flow until utilization scales reliably. Will the structural cost advantages from larger wafers ultimately outpace the spending needed to keep those fabs busy?
Compare Texas Instruments Incorporated with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 346 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−70.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)35.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)31.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)42.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)43.0× · Pricier than median
P/B15.87× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)13.27× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow99.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA28.2× · Pricier than median
PEG0.97× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 93
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)58· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)40· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $81.75 versus a price of $280.65, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXN?
Our model-based fair value for Texas Instruments Incorporated is $81.75 (as of Oct 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $280.65.
What is the quality score of TXN?
Texas Instruments Incorporated has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $81.75 (as of Oct 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $46.88, optimistic scenario $119.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Texas Instruments Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $81.75, about −71% upside versus a price of $280.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $46.88, optimistic scenario $119.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Texas Instruments Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 7, 2026).
Does Texas Instruments Incorporated pay a dividend?
Texas Instruments Incorporated currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.00% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Texas Instruments Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +40.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Oct 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TXN use?
Our models discount Texas Instruments Incorporated at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Texas Instruments Incorporated that is +40.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Texas Instruments Incorporated grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +40.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Texas Instruments Incorporated (+40.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.01 %: that much free cash flow Texas Instruments Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Texas Instruments Incorporated it is $81.75 per share (as of Oct 7, 2026), against a price of $280.65. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 7, 2026, TXN trades above its calculated fair value: price $280.65, fair value $81.75, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($280.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($81.75). For Texas Instruments Incorporated the two are $198.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Texas Instruments Incorporated worth?
The market values Texas Instruments Incorporated at about $258B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 7, 2026). Per share that is $280.65; our models calculate a fair value of $81.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXN?
Our models span a range for Texas Instruments Incorporated: cautious scenario $46.88, base $81.75, optimistic $119.62 per share (as of Oct 7, 2026, price $280.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TXN?
Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.0 (as of Oct 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $81.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 15.9, P/S 13.3, EV/EBITDA 28.2.
What is the PEG ratio of TXN?
The PEG ratio of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 0.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Texas Instruments Incorporated (as of Oct 7, 2026): return on equity 35.2%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXN from its 52-week high?
Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at $280.65, about 15% below its 52-week high of $330.59 and 86% above the low of $150.79 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $81.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Texas Instruments Incorporated?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Texas Instruments Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 7, 2026: price $280.65, calculated fair value $81.75 (−71%), Quality Score 67/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXN calculated?
We run Texas Instruments Incorporated through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $81.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Texas Instruments Incorporated itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $280.65. Our model-based fair value is $81.75, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Texas Instruments Incorporated right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($119.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($46.88 to $119.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) come from?
Earnings per share at Texas Instruments Incorporated grew +7.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Texas Instruments Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The market capitalisation of Texas Instruments Incorporated is $258B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 12.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Earnings per share at Texas Instruments Incorporated are $6.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The dividend yield of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 2.0% (payout 86.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The net margin of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 28.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 35.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 25.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
The operating margin of Texas Instruments Incorporated is 42.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Revenue at Texas Instruments Incorporated is growing +22.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)?
Earnings per share at Texas Instruments Incorporated are growing +51.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) carry?
The net debt of Texas Instruments Incorporated is $12.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 7, 2026