Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $2.2T · ISIN US8740391003
What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing really worth?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
TSM · US
A strong business, but trading 41% above our fair value of $296.10.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from $294.23 to $296.10 (+0.6%) since Aug 27, 2026.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($393.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($160.15 to $393.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.21 – $477.57 · fair‑value band $160.15 – $393.72 · the $417.01 price screens above the $296.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) currently trades at $417.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $296.10, implying the stock looks roughly 40.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $1,564 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $417.01 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $691.78, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing generated revenue of 4.1T TWD at a net margin of 46.5%. Revenue grew 35.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.7T. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $160.15 (bear case) to $393.72 (bull case); at $417.01, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 104% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at −29%, TSM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.35 per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($9,584) versus Asset-Based ($691.78). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally.
Full company description
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported revenue of 3.8T TWD in FY2025 versus 1.6T TWD in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7T TWD in FY2025, compounding +30.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +14.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TSM screens 41% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 325 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $227.98 | $98.98 | −57% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $371.54 | $118.27 | −68% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,647,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | −10% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $932.86 | $148.38 | −84% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $476.67 | $55.02 | −88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $92.09 | $35.41 | −62% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $266.54 | $78.54 | −71% |
| QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM | $164.78 | $147.20 | −11% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,845 TWD | 1,559 TWD | −59% |
| Analog Devices, Inc ADI | $354.52 | $130.34 | −63% |
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