Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $2.2T

A strong business, but screening 32% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($387.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• A fairly wide model range ($157.62 to $387.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $57.21 – $477.57 · fair‑value band $157.62 – $387.49 · the $430.49 price screens above the $291.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) currently trades at $430.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $291.42, implying the stock looks roughly 32.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company generated revenue of $4.1T at a net margin of 46.5%. Revenue grew 35.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.7T. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $157.62 (bear case) to $387.49 (bull case); at $430.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at -32%, TSM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($9,584) versus Asset-Based ($691.78). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally.

Full company description

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported revenue of 3.8T TWD in FY2025 versus 1.6T TWD in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7T TWD in FY2025, compounding +30.8%/yr from FY2021.

TSM screens 32% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →

Peer Group

Semiconductors · 322 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 78/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.