Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing $531, price $430, upside +23.4%, quality 77 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.21 – $485.80 · fair‑value band $288.27 – $659.08 · the $430.00 price screens below the $530.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 8, 2026.
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally.
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities. Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) currently trades at $430.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $530.53, implying the stock looks roughly 18.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $298.04 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $430.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $108.25, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $288.27 (bear) to $659.08 (bull), the price of $430.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported revenue of 3.8T TWD in FY2025 versus 1.6T TWD in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7T TWD in FY2025, compounding +30.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2T · P/E ratio 31.9 · P/S ratio 14.4 · EPS (TTM) $13.46 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 45.1% · Return on equity 40.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 78 out of 100 (high confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −63% fair-value upside, at 23%, TSM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$288.27Fair Value $530.53Bull$659.08
Price $430.00 · Upside +23.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.69 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Per share before 2006divided by the spin-off factor 1.03
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.7% vs 19.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 51%
2025 sits 75% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+30.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.9% a year for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Dominant foundry position supports durable scale and switching costs with strong margins and cash flow, while cyclical demand exposure and reliance on key customers create volatility.
Main risk: Reliance on a handful of big AI customers could trigger swings in demand that hit revenue and capacity utilisation in the contract manufacturing model.
TSMC just posted record third-quarter revenue on the back of AI-driven demand for advanced chips and packaging. Its contract manufacturing model keeps capacity fully utilized at the leading edge, yet reliance on a handful of big AI customers leaves room for swings if spending slows. Will the fresh agreement to produce silicon interposers in the US mainly spread geographic risk or add another layer of coordination?
Compare Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 347 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+19.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)40.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets21.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)49.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)60.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth36.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
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Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $530.53 versus a price of $430.00, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TSM?
Our model-based fair value for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is $530.53 (as of Oct 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $430.00.
What is the quality score of TSM?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $530.53 (as of Oct 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $288.27, optimistic scenario $659.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $530.53, about +23% upside versus a price of $430.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $288.27, optimistic scenario $659.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.4T TWD (latest available figure, as of Oct 8, 2026).
Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing pay a dividend?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.86% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.5 % per year. As of Oct 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TSM use?
Our models discount Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing grew +23.5 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 49.22 %: that much free cash flow Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing it is $530.53 per share (as of Oct 8, 2026), against a price of $430.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 8, 2026, TSM trades below its calculated fair value: price $430.00, fair value $530.53, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($430.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($530.53). For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing the two are $100.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing worth?
The market values Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing at about $2.2T (market capitalisation, as of Oct 8, 2026). Per share that is $430.00; our models calculate a fair value of $530.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSM?
Our models span a range for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: cautious scenario $288.27, base $530.53, optimistic $659.08 per share (as of Oct 8, 2026, price $430.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSM?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.9 (as of Oct 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $530.53 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 22.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 14.0, P/S 16.8, EV/EBITDA 23.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TSM?
The PEG ratio of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 0.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (as of Oct 8, 2026): return on equity 40.0%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSM from its 52-week high?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trades at $430.00, about 11% below its 52-week high of $485.80 and 57% above the low of $273.24 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $530.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 8, 2026: price $430.00, calculated fair value $530.53 (+23%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSM calculated?
We run Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $530.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $430.00. Our model-based fair value is $530.53, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing right now?
A fairly wide model range ($288.27 to $659.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) come from?
Earnings per share at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing grew +17.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.9 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
How large is the market capitalisation of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The market capitalisation of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is $2.2T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 14.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Earnings per share at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing are $13.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The dividend yield of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 0.9% (payout 27.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The net margin of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 45.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 40.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 20.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The operating margin of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 60.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Revenue at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is growing +36.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Earnings per share at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing are growing +77.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) hold?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing holds more cash than debt, $1.7T net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 8, 2026