NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of NVIDIA Corporation $199, price $221, upside -10.3%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.20 – $239.24 · fair‑value band $129.96 – $299.08 · the $221.30 price screens above the $198.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 15, 2026.
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NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments.
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The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software.
The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets.
It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants.
NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Stock analysis
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) currently trades at $221.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $198.56, 10.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $204.61 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $221.30 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $49.18, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $129.96 (bear) to $299.08 (bull), the price of $221.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
NVIDIA Corporation reported revenue of $216B in FY2026 versus $26.9B in FY2022, a compound +68.3%/yr. Reported net income was $120B in FY2026, compounding +87.3%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $5.4T · P/E ratio 28.4 · P/S ratio 15.8 · EPS (TTM) $7.80 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 55.6% · Return on equity 117% · Return on assets (EBIT) 43.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −63% fair-value upside, at −10%, NVDA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$129.96Fair Value $198.56Bull$299.08
Price $221.30 · Upside -10.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.29 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+65.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+100.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +45.7% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+97.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+96.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.95.3% vs 67.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 60%
2026 sits 311% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+60.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.5% a year for the price and +56.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Advantages in innovation, pricing and operations form the main strength, while moderate human capital support and limited insider buying visibility represent the primary weakness.
Main risk: Customers questioning the pace of AI revenue growth pose the biggest risk to the business, which could reduce demand for its semiconductor hardware.
Nvidia is in early talks to deepen its stake in or acquire Reflection AI, a developer of open-weight models already backed by the company. This move could help close the gap to frontier-scale open models while customers question the pace of AI revenue growth. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will securing open-model capabilities extend Nvidia's hardware lead or add exposure to a more competitive software layer?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 346 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−10.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)117.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets58.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)63.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)66.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth105.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NVIDIA Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVDA
Frequently asked questions
Is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $198.56 versus a price of $221.30, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NVDA?
Our model-based fair value for NVIDIA Corporation is $198.56 (as of Oct 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $221.30.
What is the quality score of NVDA?
NVIDIA Corporation has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $198.56 (as of Oct 15, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $129.96, optimistic scenario $299.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NVIDIA Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $198.56, about −10% upside versus a price of $221.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $129.96, optimistic scenario $299.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
NVIDIA Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $303B (latest available figure, as of Oct 15, 2026).
Does NVIDIA Corporation pay a dividend?
NVIDIA Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.13% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 15, 2026).
What growth is priced into NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NVIDIA Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +32.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +66.9 % per year. As of Oct 15, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NVDA use?
Our models discount NVIDIA Corporation at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 2.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NVIDIA Corporation that is +32.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NVIDIA Corporation grew +66.9 % a year. The price currently implies +32.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NVIDIA Corporation (+32.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.78 %: that much free cash flow NVIDIA Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NVIDIA Corporation it is $198.56 per share (as of Oct 15, 2026), against a price of $221.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NVIDIA Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, NVDA trades above its calculated fair value: price $221.30, fair value $198.56, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVDA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($221.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($198.56). For NVIDIA Corporation the two are $22.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NVIDIA Corporation worth?
The market values NVIDIA Corporation at about $5.4T (market capitalisation, as of Oct 15, 2026). Per share that is $221.30; our models calculate a fair value of $198.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVDA?
Our models span a range for NVIDIA Corporation: cautious scenario $129.96, base $198.56, optimistic $299.08 per share (as of Oct 15, 2026, price $221.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NVDA?
NVIDIA Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.4 (as of Oct 15, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $198.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 34.5, P/S 17.9, EV/EBITDA 26.9.
What is the PEG ratio of NVDA?
The PEG ratio of NVIDIA Corporation is 0.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 15, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
Balance-sheet figures for NVIDIA Corporation (as of Oct 15, 2026): return on equity 117.2%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVDA from its 52-week high?
NVIDIA Corporation trades at $221.30, about 7% below its 52-week high of $239.24 and 34% above the low of $164.98 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $198.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NVIDIA Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NVIDIA Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 15, 2026: price $221.30, calculated fair value $198.56 (−10%), Quality Score 73/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVDA calculated?
We run NVIDIA Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $198.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. NVIDIA Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $221.30. Our model-based fair value is $198.56, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NVIDIA Corporation right now?
A fairly wide model range ($129.96 to $299.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of NVIDIA Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
The market capitalisation of NVIDIA Corporation is $5.4T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NVIDIA Corporation is 15.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
Earnings per share at NVIDIA Corporation are $7.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
The dividend yield of NVIDIA Corporation is 0.1% (payout 3.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
The net margin of NVIDIA Corporation is 55.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NVIDIA Corporation is 117% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NVIDIA Corporation is 43.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
The operating margin of NVIDIA Corporation is 66.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
Revenue at NVIDIA Corporation is growing +106% versus a year earlier (3y avg +100%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
Earnings per share at NVIDIA Corporation are growing +128% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) carry?
The net debt of NVIDIA Corporation is $807M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 15, 2026