Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (ARM) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $280B · ISIN US0420682058
What is Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares really worth?
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
ARM · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 1,020% above our fair value of $21.67.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −13.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
36‑month range $47.87 – $439.46 · fair‑value band $15.39 – $26.54 · the $242.59 price screens above the $21.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (ARM) currently trades at $242.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.67, implying the stock looks roughly 1,019.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.97 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $242.59 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.20, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares generated revenue of $4.9B at a net margin of 18.4%. Revenue grew 20.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.39 (bear case) to $26.54 (bull case); at $242.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 143% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −91%, ARM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3484 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($28.97) versus Asset-Based ($5.20). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services.
Full company description
Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services. The company provides a product portfolio, including CPU IP, GPU and neural processing unit (NPU) accelerators, system IP such as interconnects, compute platform products including pre-integrated CSSs, and development tools and software. The company serves semiconductor companies, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), cloud service providers (CSPs), and organizations developing chips for end markets such as smartphones, consumer electronics, industrial IoT, embedded systems, cloud data centers, networking, automotive, and robotics. It provides its products and services in the United States, China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Cambridge, United Kingdom. Arm Holdings plc operates as a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2026 versus $2.7B in FY2022, a compound +16.2%/yr. Reported net income was $904M in FY2026, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2022.
ARM screens 1,020% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Arm Holdings (ARM) Heads To TestMu Conference, Is The AI Story Fully Priced?
- ARM vs. NVDA: Which AI Chip Designer is Worth Investing in?
- ARM's Expanding AI Growth Opportunity Goes Beyond Market Hype
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 325 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $227.98 | $98.98 | −57% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $427.30 | $296.10 | −31% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $371.54 | $118.27 | −68% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,647,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | −10% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $932.86 | $148.38 | −84% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $476.67 | $55.02 | −88% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $92.09 | $35.41 | −62% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $266.54 | $78.54 | −71% |
| QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM | $164.78 | $147.20 | −11% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,845 TWD | 1,559 TWD | −59% |
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