Arm Holdings plc (ARM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Arm Holdings plc $44.44, price $238, upside -81.3%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
37‑month range $47.87 – $439.46 · fair‑value band $30.78 – $70.96 · the $238.01 price screens above the $44.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
Follow Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Arm Holdings plc researches, develops, licenses, and markets central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP), graphics processing unit IP, systems IP, compute subsystems (CSS), and associated software, tools and related services.
Show moreShow less
The company provides a product portfolio, including CPU IP, GPU and neural processing unit (NPU) accelerators, system IP such as interconnects, compute platform products including pre-integrated CSSs, and development tools and software.
The company serves semiconductor companies, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), cloud service providers (CSPs), and organizations developing chips for end markets such as smartphones, consumer electronics, industrial IoT, embedded systems, cloud data centers, networking, automotive, and robotics.
It provides its products and services in the United States, China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Cambridge, United Kingdom. Arm Holdings plc operates as a subsidiary of SoftBank Group Corp.
Stock analysis
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (ARM) currently trades at $238.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.44, 81.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.97 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $238.01 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.20, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $30.78 (bear) to $70.96 (bull), the price of $238.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2026 versus $2.7B in FY2022, a compound +16.2%/yr. Reported net income was $904M in FY2026, compounding +13.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $327B · P/E ratio 247.9 · P/S ratio 45.6 · EPS (TTM) $0.9600 · Net margin 18.4% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% · Operating margin 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 128% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −81%, ARM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$30.78Fair Value $44.44Bull$70.96
Price $238.01 · Upside -81.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5208 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$18.20$28.97$61.7573
Growth DCF$17.44$32.43$62.8371
EPV$8.71$9.79$10.7570
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$18.20$28.97$61.7573
Owner Earnings$12.05$24.77$52.6768
5Y Revenue Exit$12.77$20.58$35.8568
5Y EBITDA Exit$17.39$30.48$54.6669
5Y P/E Exit$19.69$39.26$64.7766
10Y Revenue Exit$13.96$24.88$36.3163
10Y EBITDA Exit$17.65$34.04$64.3962
10Y P/E Exit$19.32$38.60$72.4958
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$5.76$40.14$56.3363
Lynch FV$12.42$17.74$23.0661
PEG = 1.0$12.42$17.74$23.0657
EPV$8.71$9.79$10.7570
Multiples
P/E Multiple$17.78$23.70$29.6363
P/S Multiple$10.79$14.39$17.9958
P/B Multiple$10.79$14.39$17.9955
EV/EBIT$17.88$22.98$28.0863
EV/EBITDA$17.20$22.08$26.9564
EV/Revenue$10.31$13.63$16.9452
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.88$5.20$7.7651
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$17.44$32.43$62.8371
Rev-Margin DCF$12.77$22.10$36.1868
Economic Profit
Residual Income$7.10$8.25$11.4970
ROIC Compounder$9.62$12.90$15.8170
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$19.10$27.29$35.4867
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+15.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 19%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+66.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+28.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +62.4% a year for the price and +25.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business quality rests on a durable IP licensing moat from high gross margins and ecosystem position, offset by moderate ROE and limited ownership signals.
Main risk: The silicon expansion risks creating manufacturing dependencies that would hit margins in the traditional high-margin licensing model.
Arm is shifting from pure design licensing toward supplying its own AGI CPU silicon for AI infrastructure, on top of its fast-growing data center royalties. This opens new revenue but introduces manufacturing dependencies and potential margin pressure that its traditional model largely avoided. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Does the silicon expansion strengthen Arm's position in the AI supply chain more than it complicates its high-margin licensing focus?
Compare Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 346 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−81.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.4% · Above median
Return on assets8.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)247.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B39.48× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)63.45× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow334.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.73× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 93
PAST (return on equity)53· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARM
Frequently asked questions
Is Arm Holdings plc (ARM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.44 versus a price of $238.01, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARM?
Our model-based fair value for Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is $44.44 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $238.01.
What is the quality score of ARM?
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $44.44 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.78, optimistic scenario $70.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $44.44, about −81% upside versus a price of $238.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $30.78, optimistic scenario $70.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares would have to grow free cash flow by +66.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.4 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARM use?
Our models discount Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 3.89, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares that is +66.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arm Holdings plc (ARM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares grew +19.4 % a year. The price currently implies +66.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arm Holdings plc (ARM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (+66.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.39 %: that much free cash flow Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares it is $44.44 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of $238.01. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, ARM trades above its calculated fair value: price $238.01, fair value $44.44, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($238.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($44.44). For Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares the two are $193.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares worth?
The market values Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares at about $327B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is $238.01; our models calculate a fair value of $44.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARM?
Our models span a range for Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares: cautious scenario $30.78, base $44.44, optimistic $70.96 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price $238.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARM?
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 247.9 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $44.44 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 222.4 (reported for FY2026: 280.0). Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 39.5, P/S 63.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ARM?
The PEG ratio of Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is 2.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 13.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARM from its 52-week high?
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares trades at $238.01, about 46% below its 52-week high of $439.46 and 128% above the low of $104.55 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $44.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price $238.01, calculated fair value $44.44 (−81%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARM calculated?
We run Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $44.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $238.01. Our model-based fair value is $44.44, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($70.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($30.78 to $70.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
How large is the market capitalisation of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
The market capitalisation of Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is $327B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is 45.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
Earnings per share at Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares are $0.9600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 247.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
The net margin of Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is 18.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
The operating margin of Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
Revenue at Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares is growing +22.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arm Holdings plc (ARM)?
Earnings per share at Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares are growing +108% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Arm Holdings plc (ARM) hold?
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares holds more cash than debt, $2.3B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares in the live analysis
One click puts Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Oct 13, 2026