Tsingtao Brewery Company (TSGTY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $9.1B
Tsingtao Brewery Company
TSGTY · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +2.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($32.49). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($32.49 to $68.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.48 – $50.17 · fair‑value band $32.49 – $68.48 · the $29.00 price screens below the $46.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Tsingtao Brewery Company (TSGTY) currently trades at $29.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.44, implying the stock looks roughly 60.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tsingtao Brewery Company generated revenue of $32.3B at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $12.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $32.49 (bear case) to $68.48 (bull case); at $29.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -5% fair-value upside, at 60%, TSGTY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($312.93) versus Asset-Based ($75.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally.
Full company description
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. It operates in seven segments: Shandong Region; South China Region; North China Region; East China Region; Southeast China Region; Hong Kong, Macau and Other Overseas Regions; and Finance Company. The company sells its beer products primarily under the Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, Hans Beer, Tsingtao Beer Museum, TSINGTAO 1903 Pubs, and Tsingtao Prince brand names. It also provides wealth management, agency collection, real estate, software and IT, and payment services, as well as technology promotion and application services. In addition, the company is involved in industrial engineering; technology promotion and application; and industrial investment activities. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Qingdao, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tsingtao Brewery Company reported revenue of ¥29.5B in FY2025 versus ¥30.2B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.5B in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −4.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €68.84 | €41.60 | -40% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | 14,120 ARS | 3,535 ARS | -75% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €73.90 | €65.06 | -12% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $133.98 | $173.19 | +29% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,090 | kr 607.30 | -44% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €69.70 | €99.95 | +43% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | -5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.50 | HK$25.37 | +13% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥12.85 | ¥12.51 | -3% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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