Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd (TSGTY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $9.1B · ISIN US8985291025
What is Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd really worth?
Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd
TSGTY · US
A solid business, trading 42% below our fair value of $46.54.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 19, 2026, revised from $46.44 to $46.54 (+0.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −5.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($32.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($32.55 to $68.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.48 – $50.17 · fair‑value band $32.55 – $68.62 · the $27.00 price screens below the $46.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd (TSGTY) currently trades at $27.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $46.54, implying the stock looks roughly 42.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $312.93 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the $27.00 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $75.31, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd generated revenue of 32.3B CNY at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue declined 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $12.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $32.55 (bear case) to $68.62 (bull case); at $27.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 72%, TSGTY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.72 per share, which is 3.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($312.93) versus Asset-Based ($75.31). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally.
Full company description
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally. It operates in seven segments: Shandong Region; South China Region; North China Region; East China Region; Southeast China Region; Hong Kong, Macau and Other Overseas Regions; and Finance Company. The company sells its beer products primarily under the Tsingtao Beer, Laoshan Beer, Hans Beer, Tsingtao Beer Museum, TSINGTAO 1903 Pubs, and Tsingtao Prince brand names. It also provides wealth management, agency collection, real estate, software and IT, and payment services, as well as technology promotion and application services. In addition, the company is involved in industrial engineering; technology promotion and application; and industrial investment activities. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Qingdao, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd reported revenue of 29.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 30.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 4.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.6 % · buybacks/dilution −4.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €68.28 | €60.24 | −12% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €72.70 | €65.06 | −11% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | $2.86 | $4.05 | +42% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $120.41 | $54.74 | −55% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $129.09 | $173.19 | +34% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,115 | kr 607.30 | −46% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €68.25 | €60.55 | −11% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | −5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.16 | HK$25.38 | +15% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.00 | C$105.41 | +67% |
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