Heineken (HEIA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · NL · Market cap €42.9B · ISIN NL0000009165
What is Heineken really worth?
A solid business, but trading 12% above our fair value of €65.06.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −8.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (€34.90 to €89.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €61.39 – €98.23 · fair‑value band €34.90 – €89.04 · the €73.02 price screens above the €65.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Heineken (HEIA) currently trades at €73.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €65.06, implying the stock looks roughly 12.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €60.00 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the €73.02 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €17.06, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Heineken generated revenue of €28.8B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue declined 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at €15.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €34.90 (bear case) to €89.04 (bull case); at €73.02, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −11%, HEIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.9920 per share, which is 1.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€60.00) versus Earnings-Based (€17.06). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks.
Full company description
Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks. It sells its products under the Heineken, Heineken 0.0, Heineken Silver, Amstel, Moretti, Tiger, Desperados, Edelweiss, Lagunitas, Orchard Thieves, Windhoek, Dos Equis, Red Stripe, Kingfisher, Bintang, Gosser, Affligem, Mort Subite, Strongbow, Stassen, Bulmers, Old Mout, Savanna, Turbo King, Tecate, Lagunitas Hoppy Refresher, Bia Viet, Tiger Crystal, Birra Moretti, Harar, Cruzcampo, Bernini, Legend Stout, Beavertown, Stëlz, Texels, Ladrón, Bandida, Stibitzer, El Aguila, and Murphy's brands. In addition, the company engages in rental of pubs and bars; wholesale activities; and pub management and technical services. The company offers its products to retailers, wholesalers and distributors, bars, restaurants, clubs, cafes, and hotels. Heineken N.V. was incorporated in 1864 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken N.V. is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heineken reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €22.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.4 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HEIA screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Heineken N.V. reports the progress of transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken (ENXTAM:HEIA) Backs Rafael Oliveira As Next CEO From October 2026
- Heineken Holding NV's Dividend Analysis
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €68.28 | €60.24 | −12% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | $2.86 | $4.05 | +42% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $120.41 | $54.74 | −55% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $129.09 | $173.19 | +34% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,115 | kr 607.30 | −46% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €68.25 | €60.55 | −11% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥51.63 | ¥63.65 | +23% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | −5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.16 | HK$25.38 | +15% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.00 | C$105.41 | +67% |
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