Ambev S.A (ABEV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AR · Market cap 227T ARS
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 6,060 ARS to 3,535 ARS (−41.7%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +1.1% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4,301 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 510.02 ARS – 15,180 ARS · fair‑value band 2,780 ARS – 4,301 ARS · the 14,120 ARS price screens above the 3,535 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ambev S.A (ABEV) currently trades at 14,120 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,535 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 75.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ambev S.A generated revenue of 88.2B ARS at a net margin of 17.7%. Revenue declined 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.3%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 50.7. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 2,780 ARS (bear case) to 4,301 ARS (bull case); at 14,120 ARS, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -75%, ABEV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (3,514 ARS) versus Asset-Based (667.30 ARS). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada.
Full company description
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada. The company offers beer, ready-to-drink cocktails and spritzers, soft drinks, water, teas, and isotonic drinks under the Brahma, Skol, Antarctica, Original, Quilmes, Andes Origen, Patricia, Paceha, Huari, Pilsen, Presidente, Balboa, Guaraná Antarctica, and Beats brands. It sells its products to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers within a broad distribution network. The company was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ambev S.A reported revenue of 88.2B ARS in FY2025 versus 79.7B ARS in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was 15.5B ARS in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2022.
ABEV screens 75% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €68.84 | €41.60 | -40% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €73.90 | €65.06 | -12% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $133.98 | $173.19 | +29% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,090 | kr 607.30 | -44% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €69.70 | €99.95 | +43% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥53.45 | ¥63.65 | +19% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | -5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.50 | HK$25.37 | +13% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥12.85 | ¥12.51 | -3% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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