Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · AR · Market cap 227T ARS (≈ $159B)

What is Ambev S.A. really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4,364 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 510.02 ARS – 15,180 ARS · fair‑value band 2,820 ARS – 4,364 ARS · the 14,500 ARS price screens above the 3,587 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Ambev S.A. (ABEV) currently trades at 14,500 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,587 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 304.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 3,566 ARS per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the 14,500 ARS price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 677.12 ARS, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Ambev S.A. generated revenue of R$88.2B at a net margin of 17.7%. Revenue declined 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.3%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 52.1. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 2,820 ARS (bear case) to 4,364 ARS (bull case); at 14,500 ARS, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −75%, ABEV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 188.54 ARS per share, which is 5.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (3,566 ARS) versus Asset-Based (677.12 ARS). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada.

Full company description

Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada. The company offers beer, ready-to-drink cocktails and spritzers, soft drinks, water, teas, and isotonic drinks under the Brahma, Skol, Antarctica, Original, Quilmes, Andes Origen, Patricia, Paceha, Huari, Pilsen, Presidente, Balboa, Guaraná Antarctica, and Beats brands. It sells its products to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers within a broad distribution network. The company was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ambev S.A. reported revenue of R$88.2B in FY2025 versus R$79.7B in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$15.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2022.

ABEV screens 304% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →

Peer Group

Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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