Ambev S.A. (ABEV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Ambev S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
Consumer Defensive · AR · Market cap 227T ARS (≈ $159B)
At a glance
ASAmbev S.A.ABEV · BA
Price14,530 ARS
Fair Value3,587 ARS
Upside−75.3%
Quality77/100
A strong business, but trading 305% above our fair value of 3,587 ARS.
As of Aug 29, 2026, the fair value of Ambev S.A. is 3,587 ARS per share against a price of 14,530 ARS, so the fair value sits 75% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +3.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.7% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
✓Wide moat 77/100
Evidence: HighRange 2,820 ARS to 4,364 ARS
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from 3,611 ARS to 3,587 ARS (−0.7%) since Aug 26, 2026.
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What matters now
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4,364 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 510.02 ARS – 15,180 ARS · fair‑value band 2,820 ARS – 4,364 ARS · the 14,530 ARS price screens above the 3,587 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) currently trades at 14,530 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,587 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 305.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 3,566 ARS per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the 14,530 ARS price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 677.12 ARS, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ambev S.A. generated revenue of R$88.2B at a net margin of 17.7%. Revenue declined 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.3%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 52.2. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Scenario range: 2,820 ARS (bear) to 4,364 ARS (bull), the price of 14,530 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 91% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −75%, ABEV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (193.10 ARS per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence2,643 ARS3,587 ARS5,431 ARS77
Growth DCF2,748 ARS3,676 ARS5,351 ARS75
Owner Earnings2,384 ARS3,227 ARS4,875 ARS73
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence2,643 ARS3,587 ARS5,431 ARS77
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio52.2
P/S ratio9.17P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)278.35 ARSprice ÷ EPS = P/E 52.2
Dividend yield0.0%payout 0.3%
Net margin17.6%FY2025
Return on equity17.3%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)13.8%avg 4y
Operating margin26.2%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)R$88.2BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−0.1%3y avg +3.4%
EPS growth (YoY)+2.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowR$19.9BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality77/100
Of which business quality 73
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Profitability61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance87
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada.
Full company description
Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada. The company offers beer, ready-to-drink cocktails and spritzers, soft drinks, water, teas, and isotonic drinks under the Brahma, Skol, Antarctica, Original, Quilmes, Andes Origen, Patricia, Paceha, Huari, Pilsen, Presidente, Balboa, Guaraná Antarctica, and Beats brands. It sells its products to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers within a broad distribution network. The company was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ambev S.A. reported revenue of R$88.2B in FY2025 versus R$79.7B in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$15.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2022.
Growth Quality 69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$88.2B
Latest YoY
−1.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Value creation/yr (3Y, in BRL) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+2.6%
Dividend yield0.0%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21.8% (2022) → 25.3% (2025) · rising
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ambev S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ABEV
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 57 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)52.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.26× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)9.23× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF8.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA29.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG7.20× · Priciest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Ambev S.A. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+28.7 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 3 years+3.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.9 %
FCF yield on price2.82 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models17.2 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 28
FUTURE0· sector 0
PAST69· sector 35
HEALTH100· sector 97
DIVIDEND0· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Alcohol
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,587 ARS versus a price of 14,530 ARS, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ABEV?
Our model-based fair value for Ambev S.A. is 3,587 ARS (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14,530 ARS.
What is the quality score of ABEV?
Ambev S.A. has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,587 ARS (as of Aug 29, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,820 ARS, optimistic scenario 4,364 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ambev S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,587 ARS, about −75% upside versus a price of 14,530 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2,820 ARS, optimistic scenario 4,364 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Ambev S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$88.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ABEV?
The net profit margin of Ambev S.A. is about 17.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ambev S.A. pay a dividend?
Ambev S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.01% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ambev S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +28.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 17.2 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Aug 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ABEV use?
Our models discount Ambev S.A. at 17.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ambev S.A. it is 3,587 ARS per share (as of Aug 29, 2026), against a price of 14,530 ARS. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ambev S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 29, 2026, ABEV trades above its calculated fair value: price 14,530 ARS, fair value 3,587 ARS, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ABEV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14,530 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,587 ARS). For Ambev S.A. the two are 10,943 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ambev S.A. worth?
The market values Ambev S.A. at about 227T ARS (market capitalisation, as of Aug 29, 2026). Per share that is 14,530 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 3,587 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ABEV?
Our models span a range for Ambev S.A.: cautious scenario 2,820 ARS, base 3,587 ARS, optimistic 4,364 ARS per share (as of Aug 29, 2026, price 14,530 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ABEV?
Ambev S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.2 (as of Aug 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3,587 ARS is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.2, P/B 9.3, P/S 9.2, EV/EBITDA 29.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ABEV?
The PEG ratio of Ambev S.A. is 7.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ambev S.A. (as of Aug 29, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ABEV from its 52-week high?
Ambev S.A. trades at 14,530 ARS, about 5% below its 52-week high of 15,330 ARS and 91% above the low of 7,616 ARS (as of Aug 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,587 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ambev S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ambev S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 29, 2026: price 14,530 ARS, calculated fair value 3,587 ARS (−75%), Quality Score 77/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ABEV calculated?
We run Ambev S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,587 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Ambev S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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