Heineken Holding NV (HEIO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · NL · Market cap €19.4B · ISIN NL0000008977
What is Heineken Holding NV really worth?
A solid business, but trading 13% above our fair value of €60.55.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 4, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Sep 4, 2026, revised from €99.95 to €60.55 (−39.4%) since Aug 31, 2026. Share price −8.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€32.65 to €90.84). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €53.44 – €82.28 · fair‑value band €32.65 – €90.84 · the €68.25 price screens above the €60.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 4, 2026.
Analysis
Heineken Holding NV (HEIO) currently trades at €68.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €60.55, implying the stock looks roughly 12.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €61.29 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the €68.25 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €17.54, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Heineken Holding NV generated revenue of €28.8B at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue declined 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.1%. Net debt stands at €15.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 4, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €32.65 (bear case) to €90.84 (bull case); at €68.25, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −11%, HEIO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.9988 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€61.29) versus Earnings-Based (€17.54). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders.
Full company description
Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken Holding N.V. is a subsidiary of L'Arche Green N.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heineken Holding NV reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €21.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was €952M in FY2025, compounding −28.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.4 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HEIO screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Heineken Holding N.V. reports transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken N.V. reports the progress of transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken Holding NV's Dividend Analysis
- Heineken Holding NV (HKHHF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth and ...
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 4, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI | €68.28 | €60.24 | −12% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €72.70 | €65.06 | −11% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | $2.86 | $4.05 | +42% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX | $120.41 | $54.74 | −55% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $129.09 | $173.19 | +34% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,115 | kr 607.30 | −46% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥51.63 | ¥63.65 | +23% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | −5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.16 | HK$25.38 | +15% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.00 | C$105.41 | +67% |
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