Heineken Holding (HEIO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · NL · Market cap €19.4B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €72.67 to €99.95 (+37.5%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +1.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 43% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€54.50 to €146.98). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €53.44 – €82.28 · fair‑value band €54.50 – €146.98 · the €70.00 price screens below the €99.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Heineken Holding (HEIO) currently trades at €70.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €99.95, implying the stock looks roughly 42.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Heineken Holding generated revenue of €28.8B at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue declined 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.1%. Net debt stands at €15.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €54.50 (bear case) to €146.98 (bull case); at €70.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -5% fair-value upside, at 43%, HEIO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€115.85) versus Earnings-Based (€17.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders.
Full company description
Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken Holding N.V. is a subsidiary of L'Arche Green N.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heineken Holding reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €21.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was €952M in FY2025, compounding −28.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch HEIO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Heineken Holding NV's Dividend Analysis
- Heineken Holding N.V. reports transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken N.V. reports the progress of transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken Holding NV (HKHHF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth and ...
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €68.84 | €41.60 | -40% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | 14,120 ARS | 3,535 ARS | -75% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €73.90 | €65.06 | -12% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $133.98 | $173.19 | +29% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,090 | kr 607.30 | -44% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥53.45 | ¥63.65 | +19% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.35 | HK$6.05 | -5% |
| China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 | HK$22.50 | HK$25.37 | +13% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥12.85 | ¥12.51 | -3% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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