TransAlta Corp (TAC) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $4.5B · ISIN CA89346D1078
What is TransAlta Corp really worth?
TransAlta Corp
TAC · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 163% above our fair value of $4.49.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from $4.46 to $4.49 (+0.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −7.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($1.39 to $4.49). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.83 – $17.54 · fair‑value band $1.39 – $4.49 · the $11.81 price screens above the $4.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
TransAlta Corp (TAC) currently trades at $11.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.49, implying the stock looks roughly 163.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $6.66 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $11.81 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.83, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, TransAlta Corp generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of −7.7%. Revenue declined 25.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −11.1%. Net debt stands at $4.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.39 (bear case) to $4.49 (bull case); at $11.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −62%, TAC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($6.66) versus Multiples ($1.83). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada.
Full company description
TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada. The Wind and Solar segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 2,587 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia, as well as battery storage facilities. The Gas segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 4834 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia. The Energy Transition segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 671 MW located in the United States, as well as operates the Skookumchuck hydro facility in Centralia. The Energy Marketing segment is involved in the trading of electricity, natural gas, and environmental products. TransAlta Corporation was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TransAlta Corp reported revenue of C$2.4B in FY2025 versus C$2.7B in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −C$138M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.9 % · buybacks/dilution −0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TAC screens 163% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- FERC approves TransAlta, PowerTransitions gas-fired power plant deals
- TransAlta Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- TransAlta Corp (TAC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Resilience and Data Center ...
- TransAlta FFO of $0.67 beats by $0.30
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $285.05 | $88.09 | −69% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $144.22 | $50.39 | −65% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹206.10 | ₹75.57 | −63% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥4.33 | ¥3.62 | −16% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 63.25 THB | 39.25 THB | −38% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $109.51 | $53.91 | −51% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,583 | ₹342.02 | −78% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $365.07 | $43.55 | −88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.89 | ¥4.95 | −16% |
| Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 | ¥6.92 | ¥9.14 | +32% |
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