Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $17.8B · ISIN US87422Q1094
What is Talen Energy Corporation really worth?
Talen Energy Corporation
TLN · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 602% above our fair value of $43.55.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $44.67 to $43.55 (−2.5%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −10.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($43.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range $46.00 – $445.84 · fair‑value band $36.23 – $43.55 · the $305.52 price screens above the $43.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) currently trades at $305.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.55, implying the stock looks roughly 601.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $133.70 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the $305.52 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $42.94, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Talen Energy Corporation generated revenue of $3.2B at a net margin of −0.7%. Revenue grew 96.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −1.9%. Net debt stands at $6.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $36.23 (bear case) to $43.55 (bull case); at $305.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −86%, TLN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($536.91) versus Growth DCF ($42.94). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Talen Energy Corporation, an independent power producer and infrastructure company, produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets in the United States. The company's plants generate power using a variety of fuels, such as nuclear, fossil, oil, natural gas, and coal power plants.
Full company description
Talen Energy Corporation, an independent power producer and infrastructure company, produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets in the United States. The company's plants generate power using a variety of fuels, such as nuclear, fossil, oil, natural gas, and coal power plants. It owns and operates approximately 13.1 GW of power infrastructure. Talen Energy Corporation was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Talen Energy Corporation reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$219M in FY2025.
TLN screens 602% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- How Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Transformed Bankruptcy into a High-Yield Masterclass
- Talen Energy (TLN) is Down 23% This Year. But Mizuho Expects a Rebound
- OKLO vs. TLN: Which Nuclear Energy Stock Looks Better Now?
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $285.05 | $88.09 | −69% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $144.22 | $50.39 | −65% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹206.10 | ₹75.57 | −63% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥4.33 | ¥3.62 | −16% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 63.25 THB | 39.25 THB | −38% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $109.51 | $53.91 | −51% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,583 | ₹342.02 | −78% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.89 | ¥4.95 | −16% |
| Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 | ¥6.92 | ¥9.14 | +32% |
| The Tata Power Company TATAPOWER | ₹368.00 | ₹175.12 | −52% |
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