Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $92.0B · ISIN US21037T1097
What is Constellation Energy Corp really worth?
Constellation Energy Corp
CEG · US
A solid business, but trading 224% above our fair value of $88.09.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated today
Share price +6.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($131.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($50.22 to $131.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range $40.40 – $402.32 · fair‑value band $50.22 – $131.11 · the $285.05 price screens above the $88.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) currently trades at $285.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $88.09, implying the stock looks roughly 223.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $110.40 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $285.05 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $18.83, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Constellation Energy Corp generated revenue of $29.9B at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue grew 63.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.1%. Net debt stands at $5.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $50.22 (bear case) to $131.11 (bull case); at $285.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −69%, CEG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.73 per share, which is 7.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($110.40) versus Dividend Discount ($18.83). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Constellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions.
Full company description
Constellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions. The company has approximately 31,676 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and commercial, industrial, public sector, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Constellation Energy Corp reported revenue of $25.5B in FY2025 versus $19.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.3B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +3.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CEG screens 224% overvalued. Compare with Vistra Corp →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- CEG vs. VST: Which Nuclear Utility Stock Stands Out for Investors?
- Constellation Energy (CEG) Stock Looks Discounted Against Fair Value
- CEG Stock Outperforms Industry in the Past Month: Buy, Hold or Sell
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vistra Corp VST | $144.22 | $50.39 | −65% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹206.10 | ₹75.57 | −63% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥4.33 | ¥3.62 | −16% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 63.25 THB | 39.25 THB | −38% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $109.51 | $53.91 | −51% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,583 | ₹342.02 | −78% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $365.07 | $43.55 | −88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.89 | ¥4.95 | −16% |
| Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 | ¥6.92 | ¥9.14 | +32% |
| The Tata Power Company TATAPOWER | ₹368.00 | ₹175.12 | −52% |
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