NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $28.5B · ISIN US6293775085
What is NRG Energy Inc. really worth?
NRG Energy Inc.
NRG · US
A solid business, but trading 107% above our fair value of $53.91.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −4.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($96.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($29.01 to $96.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.52 – $183.47 · fair‑value band $29.01 – $96.42 · the $111.84 price screens above the $53.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) currently trades at $111.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $53.91, implying the stock looks roughly 107.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $74.17 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $111.84 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $28.54, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, NRG Energy Inc. generated revenue of $32.4B at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 19.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. Net debt stands at $12.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $29.01 (bear case) to $96.42 (bull case); at $111.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −52%, NRG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($74.17) versus Asset-Based ($5.34). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments.
Full company description
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services. It also offers system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, energy management, renewable and low-carbon products, and carbon management solutions for large business and commercial customers; a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions; and generation portfolio includes fossil fuel and renewable generation assets diversified by fuel type and dispatch level, with ongoing development of new natural gas and renewable projects. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related products; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NRG Energy Inc. reported revenue of $30.7B in FY2025 versus $27.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $864M in FY2025, compounding −20.7%/yr from FY2021.
NRG screens 107% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Can Rising C&I Demand Drive Constellation Energy's Long-Term Growth?
- Does NRG’s Challenge to PJM’s Reliability Plan Signal a Deeper Shift in NRG’s Strategy (NRG)?
- NRG Energy (NRG), What Is Behind The Latest Attention?
- Does NRG Energy (NRG) Look Fairly Valued After Earnings?
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $285.05 | $88.09 | −69% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $144.22 | $50.39 | −65% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹206.10 | ₹75.57 | −63% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥4.33 | ¥3.62 | −16% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 63.25 THB | 39.25 THB | −38% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,583 | ₹342.02 | −78% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $365.07 | $43.55 | −88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.89 | ¥4.95 | −16% |
| Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 | ¥6.92 | ¥9.14 | +32% |
| The Tata Power Company TATAPOWER | ₹368.00 | ₹175.12 | −52% |
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