CGN Power (003816) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap 198B CNY (≈ $29.6B) · ISIN CNE100003N43
What is CGN Power really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 21% above our fair value of ¥3.62.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from ¥2.79 to ¥3.62 (+29.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +7.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.22 – ¥4.97 · fair‑value band ¥2.84 – ¥4.53 · the ¥4.37 price screens above the ¥3.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
CGN Power (003816) currently trades at ¥4.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.62, implying the stock looks roughly 20.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥4.06 per share, and 2 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥4.37 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.69, and 12 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, CGN Power generated revenue of 73.2B CNY at a net margin of 13.0%. Revenue declined 13.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at 266B CNY. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.84 (bear case) to ¥4.53 (bull case); at ¥4.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −17%, 003816 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0704 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥4.06) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.69). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power stations and sells the electricity generated by these stations in the People's Republic of China. It also provides construction, installation, design, and related technical services, as well as labor services.
Full company description
CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power stations and sells the electricity generated by these stations in the People's Republic of China. It also provides construction, installation, design, and related technical services, as well as labor services. As of December 31, 2025, the company manages 28 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 31.838 GW. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CGN Power reported revenue of 75.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 80.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was 9.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +13.3 % · buybacks/dilution −2.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
003816 screens 21% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $285.05 | $88.09 | −69% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $144.22 | $50.39 | −65% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹206.10 | ₹75.57 | −63% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 63.25 THB | 39.25 THB | −38% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $109.51 | $53.91 | −51% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,583 | ₹342.02 | −78% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $365.07 | $43.55 | −88% |
| CGN Power Co 1816 | HK$2.80 | HK$2.79 | +0% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.89 | ¥4.95 | −16% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$59.90 | HK$30.74 | −49% |
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