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CGN Power (1816) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$138B (≈ $17.6B) · ISIN CNE100001T80

What is CGN Power really worth?

CP CGN Power 1816 · HK
PriceHK$3.09
Fair ValueHK$2.79
Upside−9.7%
Quality41/100

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of HK$2.79.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 13.0% net margin

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.4 %/yr)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Moderate moat 57/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 10 out of 100
!Weak on balance sheet: 19 out of 100

For context

·2.78% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$2.42 – HK$3.91

Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 15, 2026, revised from HK$3.45 to HK$2.79 (−19.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +7.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.63 HK$1.32 Fair Value HK$2.79 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.32 – HK$3.63 · fair‑value band HK$2.42 – HK$3.91 · the HK$3.09 price screens above the HK$2.79 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

CGN Power (1816) currently trades at HK$3.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.79, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$2.97 per share, and 4 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$3.09 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.47, and 10 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, CGN Power generated revenue of HK$73.2B at a net margin of 13.0%. Revenue declined 13.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at HK$266B. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$2.42 (bear case) to HK$3.91 (bull case); at HK$3.09, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −10%, 1816 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0782 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence HK$2.01 HK$2.16 HK$2.42 76
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.08 HK$2.97 HK$3.86 67
Gordon GGM HK$0.8400 HK$1.75 HK$2.77 66
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.30 HK$5.19 HK$7.06 64
Lynch FV HK$1.29 HK$1.84 HK$2.39 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.29 HK$1.84 HK$2.39 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.8400 HK$1.75 HK$2.77 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.8400 HK$1.47 HK$1.83 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$2.58 HK$3.44 HK$4.30 63
P/S Multiple HK$2.44 HK$3.25 HK$4.06 58
P/B Multiple HK$2.44 HK$3.25 HK$4.06 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.4100 HK$1.77 HK$3.12 59
EV/EBITDA HK$1.06 HK$2.62 HK$4.19 63
EV/Revenue — HK$0.0600 HK$1.17 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.21 HK$1.62 HK$2.41 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence HK$2.01 HK$2.16 HK$2.42 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$2.08 HK$2.97 HK$3.86 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$2.97) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.47). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.61 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2015 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5
Dividend yield 2.8% payout 42.7%
Net margin 12.9% FY2025
Return on equity 7.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 33.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$73.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −13.3% 3y avg −3.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −13.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −HK$2.1B FY2025
Net debt HK$266B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 75
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power stations and sells the electricity generated by these stations in the People's Republic of China. It also provides construction, installation, design, and related technical services, as well as labor services.

Full company description

CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates and manages nuclear power stations and sells the electricity generated by these stations in the People's Republic of China. It also provides construction, installation, design, and related technical services, as well as labor services. As of December 31, 2025, the company manages 28 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 31.838 GW. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, People's Republic of China. CGN Power Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Corporation.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CGN Power reported revenue of 75.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 80.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was 9.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 21/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$75.7B
Latest YoY
−12.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+3.0% (0.2 + 2.8)
Revenue −1.6%/yr
FY21 80.7B CNY
FY22 82.8B CNY
FY23 82.5B CNY
FY24 86.8B CNY
FY25 75.7B CNY
Net income +0.0%/yr
FY21 9.8B CNY
FY22 10.0B CNY
FY23 10.7B CNY
FY24 10.8B CNY
FY25 9.8B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +11.4 %

of which total revenue +13.9 % · buybacks/dilution −2.2 %

EBIT margin −7.3 %
Tax rate −2.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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CGN Power · Fair Value
HK$2.79 −11%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CGN Power Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1816

Peer Group

Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 76 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside −17% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −13% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.62× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.12× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.89× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.09× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE10 · sector 17
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST32 · sector 29
HEALTH19 · sector 70
DIVIDEND56 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Constellation Energy Corporation CEG $285.05 $88.09 −69%
Vistra Corp VST $144.22 $50.39 −65%
Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER ₹206.10 ₹75.57 −63%
CGN Power Co 003816 ¥4.33 ¥3.62 −16%
Gulf Development Public Company GULF 63.25 THB 39.25 THB −38%
NRG Energy, Inc NRG $109.51 $53.91 −51%
Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL ₹1,583 ₹342.02 −78%
Talen Energy Corporation TLN $365.07 $43.55 −88%
Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 ¥5.89 ¥4.95 −16%
Power Assets Holdings 0006 HK$59.90 HK$30.74 −49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CGN Power (1816) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.79 versus a price of HK$3.09, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 1816?
Our model-based fair value for CGN Power is HK$2.79 (as of Aug 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.09.
What is the quality score of 1816?
CGN Power has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CGN Power (1816)?
CGN Power reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$73.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1816?
The net profit margin of CGN Power is about 13.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CGN Power pay a dividend?
CGN Power currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.78% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 15, 2026).
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