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Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · US · Market cap $5.0B · ISIN US55826T1025

What is Sphere Entertainment Co. really worth?

SE Sphere Entertainment Co. logo Sphere Entertainment Co. SPHR · US
Price$143.00
Fair Value$21.60
Upside−84.9% ⚠
Quality55/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 562% above our fair value of $21.60.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.6% net margin
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 22 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range $16.20 – $27.00

Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price −9.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$176.38 $18.62 Fair Value $21.60 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $18.62 – $176.38 · fair‑value band $16.20 – $27.00 · the $143.00 price screens above the $21.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) currently trades at $143.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.60, implying the stock looks roughly 562.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $87.77 per share, and 1 of the 21 models we run sit above the $143.00 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.08, and 20 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sphere Entertainment Co. generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 8.6%. Revenue grew 37.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.5%. Net debt stands at $440M. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $16.20 (bear case) to $27.00 (bull case); at $143.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 278% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −85%, SPHR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 2 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.5388 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $62.01 $97.65 $149.24 79
Growth DCF $63.13 $94.71 $137.75 78
Owner Earnings $108.71 $167.94 $253.69 76
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $62.01 $97.65 $149.24 79
Owner Earnings $108.71 $167.94 $253.69 76
5Y Revenue Exit $53.45 $87.36 $130.02 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $50.16 $81.26 $116.76 75
5Y P/E Exit $27.91 $39.99 $51.98 71
10Y Revenue Exit $54.25 $85.37 $126.01 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $53.94 $81.24 $116.20 68
10Y P/E Exit $40.12 $53.37 $68.24 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $7.85 $23.44 $31.04 65
Lynch FV $4.96 $7.08 $9.20 61
PEG = 1.0 $4.96 $7.08 $9.20 57
Multiples
P/E Multiple $19.06 $25.41 $31.76 63
P/S Multiple $14.72 $19.63 $24.54 58
P/B Multiple $14.72 $19.63 $24.54 55
EV/EBITDA $50.03 $69.54 $89.06 67
EV/Revenue $51.58 $77.33 $103.08 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $38.60 $51.73 $77.21 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $63.13 $94.71 $137.75 78
Rev-Margin DCF $53.45 $87.77 $126.90 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $52.65 $49.07 $36.40 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $15.46 $22.09 $28.72 67

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($87.77) versus Earnings-Based ($7.08). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 48.3 as of Jul 17, 2026
P/S ratio 1.32 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.87 price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.3
Net margin 2.7% FY2026
Return on equity 5.5% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −4.7% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 2.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $1.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +37.7% 3y avg +28.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $191M FY2026
Net debt $440M FY2026 · ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 92
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Sphere Entertainment Co. operates as a live entertainment and media company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Sphere and MSG Networks. The Sphere segment offers entertainment medium powered by technologies to create multi-sensory experiences.

Full company description

Sphere Entertainment Co. operates as a live entertainment and media company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Sphere and MSG Networks. The Sphere segment offers entertainment medium powered by technologies to create multi-sensory experiences. The MSG Networks segment provides regional sports and entertainment networks; direct-to-consumer and authenticated streaming products, as well as sports content, including live local games and other programming. The company was formerly known as Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. and changed its name to Sphere Entertainment Co. in April 2023. Sphere Entertainment Co. was founded in 2006 and is based in New York, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Sphere Entertainment Co. reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $610M in FY2022, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was $33.4M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$1.2B
Latest YoY
+18.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+28.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−41.3% (−41.3 + 0.0)
Revenue +18.9%/yr
FY22 $610M
FY23 $574M
FY24 $1.0B
FY25 $1.0B
FY26 $1.2B
Net income
FY22 −$194M
FY23 $503M
FY24 −$201M
FY25 −$201M
FY26 $33.4M

SPHR screens 562% overvalued. Compare with Netflix, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sphere Entertainment Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPHR

Peer Group

Entertainment · 253 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets −1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Revenue growth 38% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.34× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 48.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.74× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 26.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 19.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 7
FUTURE100 · sector 15
PAST22 · sector 0
HEALTH83 · sector 98
DIVIDEND0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Entertainment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Netflix, Inc NFLX $81.72 $49.35 −40%
The Walt Disney Company DIS $103.50 $80.62 −22%
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc WBD $27.65 $9.03 −67%
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc LYV $182.02 $59.97 −67%
Universal Music Group UMG €14.73 €14.78 +0%
TKO Group TKO $189.42 $47.75 −75%
Formula One Group FWONK $102.02 $35.21 −65%
Fox Corporation FOXA $68.42 $206.81 +202%
News Corporation NWS A$46.55 A$20.41 −56%
Warner Music Group WMG $24.79 $12.10 −51%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.60 versus a price of $143.00, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPHR?
Our model-based fair value for Sphere Entertainment Co. is $21.60 (as of Aug 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $143.00.
What is the quality score of SPHR?
Sphere Entertainment Co. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)?
Sphere Entertainment Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SPHR?
The net profit margin of Sphere Entertainment Co. is about 8.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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