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Shell plc (SHEL) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · GB · Market cap 169B GBX · ISIN GB00BP6MXD84

What is Shell plc really worth?

SP Shell plc SHEL · LSE
Price£34.37
Fair Value£33.99
Upside−1.1%
Quality62/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of £33.99.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/15)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.0% net margin
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Weak on future: 4 out of 100

For context

·3.13% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range £25.23 – £42.49

Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 31, 2026, revised from £33.85 to £33.99 (+0.4%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +4.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£35.51 £10.89 Fair Value £33.99 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £10.89 – £35.51 · fair‑value band £25.23 – £42.49 · the £34.37 price screens above the £33.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

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Analysis

Shell plc (SHEL) currently trades at £34.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £33.99, implying the stock looks roughly 1.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £55.86 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the £34.37 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £15.68, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shell plc generated revenue of £267B at a net margin of 7.0%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at £74.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £25.23 (bear case) to £42.49 (bull case); at £34.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −1%, SHEL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.8923 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence £36.95 £52.11 £80.45 80
Growth DCF £38.74 £53.47 £78.88 78
Owner Earnings £35.67 £50.34 £77.75 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence £36.95 £52.11 £80.45 80
Owner Earnings £35.67 £50.34 £77.75 76
5Y Revenue Exit £36.20 £54.19 £80.44 72
5Y EBITDA Exit £35.98 £53.81 £77.53 75
5Y P/E Exit £31.06 £45.31 £62.46 71
10Y Revenue Exit £35.09 £48.77 £63.55 68
10Y EBITDA Exit £36.05 £48.53 £61.83 69
10Y P/E Exit £33.06 £43.24 £52.89 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £22.35 £28.28 £32.13 67
EPV £31.31 £36.89 £41.77 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £14.33 £15.68 £17.75 69
DDM Multi-Stage £14.33 £18.09 £23.29 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple £34.50 £46.01 £57.51 63
P/S Multiple £41.90 £55.86 £69.83 58
P/B Multiple £41.90 £55.86 £69.83 55
EV/EBIT £40.28 £54.42 £68.57 66
EV/EBITDA £41.68 £56.29 £70.90 67
EV/Revenue £39.14 £56.84 £74.54 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £15.74 £21.09 £31.48 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £38.74 £53.47 £78.88 78
Rev-Margin DCF £36.20 £55.10 £78.32 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income £28.07 £31.40 £49.59 75
ROIC Compounder £31.31 £37.61 £44.64 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £24.82 £35.46 £46.10 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (£55.86) versus Dividend Discount (£15.68). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.1
P/S ratio 0.95 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) £2.43 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1
Dividend yield 3.1% payout 44.3%
Net margin 6.7% FY2025
Return on equity 10.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 14.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) £267B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.7% 3y avg −10.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +26.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 22.2B GBX FY2025
Net debt 74.4B GBX FY2025 · ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 73
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions.

Full company description

Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions. The company explores for and extracts natural gas to produce liquefied natural gas or convert it into gas-to-liquids (GTL) fuels and other products; explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and operates marketing and transportation of oil, gas, and liquids, supported by the infrastructure required to deliver them to market or to process them within Shell's chemical manufacturing plants and refineries. It is also involved in marketing, which includes mobility, lubricants, and sectors focused on decarbonization; operates a retail network, including electric vehicle charging, convenience retail, and the wholesale commercial fuels business for transport and industry; sells products for road transport and machinery in manufacturing, mining, power generation, agriculture, and construction; and provides low-carbon energy solutions, such as biofuels, to a broad range of commercial customers, including those in the aviation, marine, and agriculture sectors. In addition, the company offers chemicals and products, including chemicals manufacturing plants with their own marketing network, and refineries that turn crude oil and other feedstocks into a range of oil products, which are moved and marketed around the world for domestic, industrial, and transport use; and operates a pipeline business, trading, and optimization of crude oil, oil products, and petrochemicals. The company was formerly known as Royal Dutch Shell plc and changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. Shell plc was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shell plc reported revenue of $272B in FY2025 versus $262B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $18.2B in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£272B
Latest YoY
−4.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−10.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−19.9% (−23.0 + 3.1)
Revenue +1.0%/yr
FY21 $262B
FY22 $381B
FY23 $317B
FY24 $284B
FY25 $272B
Net income −2.4%/yr
FY21 $20.1B
FY22 $42.3B
FY23 $19.4B
FY24 $16.1B
FY25 $18.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −9.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share −16.5 %

of which total revenue −1.3 % · buybacks/dilution −15.4 %

EBIT margin +13.4 %
Tax rate +0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −4.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shell plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHEL

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −1% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Below median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.24× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.85× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 10.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.21× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE32 · sector 5
FUTURE4 · sector 12
PAST43 · sector 43
HEALTH88 · sector 86
DIVIDEND63 · sector 74

Insider activity: 25/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $156.44 $88.98 −43%
Chevron Corporation CVX $201.86 $90.66 −55%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.23 ¥15.47 +38%
TotalEnergies SE TOTB €75.55 €69.02 −9%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA €7.11 €2.03 −71%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.52 ¥4.59 −17%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 395.90 kr 338.01 −15%
Suncor Energy Inc SU C$94.21 C$59.11 −37%
Eni S.p.A E $55.12 $32.53 −41%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $130.51 $94.61 −28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shell plc (SHEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £33.99 versus a price of £34.37, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SHEL?
Our model-based fair value for Shell plc is £33.99 (as of Aug 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £34.37.
What is the quality score of SHEL?
Shell plc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shell plc (SHEL)?
Shell plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £267B (latest available figure, as of Aug 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SHEL?
The net profit margin of Shell plc is about 7.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shell plc pay a dividend?
Shell plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.13% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 31, 2026).
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