Shell plc (SHEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · GB · Market cap 169B GBX · ISIN GB00BP6MXD84
What is Shell plc really worth?
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of £33.99.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 31, 2026, revised from £33.85 to £33.99 (+0.4%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +4.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £10.89 – £35.51 · fair‑value band £25.23 – £42.49 · the £34.37 price screens above the £33.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Shell plc (SHEL) currently trades at £34.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £33.99, implying the stock looks roughly 1.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £55.86 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the £34.37 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £15.68, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shell plc generated revenue of £267B at a net margin of 7.0%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.7%. Net debt stands at £74.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £25.23 (bear case) to £42.49 (bull case); at £34.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −1%, SHEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.8923 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£55.86) versus Dividend Discount (£15.68). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions.
Full company description
Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the United States, and other parts of the Americas. It operates through the following segments: Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions. The company explores for and extracts natural gas to produce liquefied natural gas or convert it into gas-to-liquids (GTL) fuels and other products; explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and operates marketing and transportation of oil, gas, and liquids, supported by the infrastructure required to deliver them to market or to process them within Shell's chemical manufacturing plants and refineries. It is also involved in marketing, which includes mobility, lubricants, and sectors focused on decarbonization; operates a retail network, including electric vehicle charging, convenience retail, and the wholesale commercial fuels business for transport and industry; sells products for road transport and machinery in manufacturing, mining, power generation, agriculture, and construction; and provides low-carbon energy solutions, such as biofuels, to a broad range of commercial customers, including those in the aviation, marine, and agriculture sectors. In addition, the company offers chemicals and products, including chemicals manufacturing plants with their own marketing network, and refineries that turn crude oil and other feedstocks into a range of oil products, which are moved and marketed around the world for domestic, industrial, and transport use; and operates a pipeline business, trading, and optimization of crude oil, oil products, and petrochemicals. The company was formerly known as Royal Dutch Shell plc and changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. Shell plc was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shell plc reported revenue of $272B in FY2025 versus $262B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $18.2B in FY2025, compounding −2.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −1.3 % · buybacks/dilution −15.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Shell (LSE:SHEL) Could Be 5% Undervalued As Chemicals Sale Interest Builds
- Shell (LSE:SHEL) Weighs U.S. Chemicals Exit As Industry Bidders Circle
- Exxon and LyondellBasell Eye Shell’s US Chemicals Portfolio – FT
- Shell (LSE:SHEL) Cuts Ormen Lange Output 40% After Failure Extends Outage To 2027
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $156.44 | $88.98 | −43% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $201.86 | $90.66 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.23 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €75.55 | €69.02 | −9% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA | €7.11 | €2.03 | −71% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.52 | ¥4.59 | −17% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 395.90 | kr 338.01 | −15% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$94.21 | C$59.11 | −37% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $55.12 | $32.53 | −41% |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | $130.51 | $94.61 | −28% |
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