Chevron Corp (CVX) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $351B · ISIN US1667641005
What is Chevron Corp really worth?
Chevron Corp
CVX · US
A solid business, but trading 133% above our fair value of $90.66.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +11.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($118.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($64.84 to $118.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $77.84 – $211.78 · fair‑value band $64.84 – $118.38 · the $211.32 price screens above the $90.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Chevron Corp (CVX) currently trades at $211.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $90.66, implying the stock looks roughly 133.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $98.70 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $211.32 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $39.23, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chevron Corp generated revenue of $186B at a net margin of 5.9%. Revenue grew 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. Net debt stands at $40.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $64.84 (bear case) to $118.38 (bull case); at $211.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −57%, CVX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($98.70) versus Earnings-Based ($39.23). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments.
Full company description
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and All Other segments. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration for, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and operation of a gas-to-liquids plant. Its Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The All Other segment engages in cash management and debt financing; insurance; real estate; and technology activities. It has operations in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chevron Corp reported revenue of $184B in FY2025 versus $156B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $12.3B in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
CVX screens 133% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $156.44 | $88.98 | −43% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.23 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €40.28 | €39.46 | −2% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €75.55 | €69.02 | −9% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA | €7.11 | €2.03 | −71% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.52 | ¥4.59 | −17% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 395.90 | kr 338.01 | −15% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$94.21 | C$59.11 | −37% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $55.12 | $32.53 | −41% |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | $130.51 | $94.61 | −28% |
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