Saudi Aramco (2222) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Saudi Aramco SAR 20.14, price SAR 25.78, upside -21.9%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 22.26 SAR – 31.14 SAR · fair‑value band 14.27 SAR – 27.71 SAR · the 25.78 SAR price screens above the 20.14 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
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Saudi Arabian Oil Company operates as an integrated energy and chemical company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
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Saudi Arabian Oil Company operates as an integrated energy and chemical company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The Downstream segment produces various chemicals, such as aromatics, olefins, and polyolefins; polyols, isocyanates, and synthetic rubber; methanol, MTBE, glycols, linear alpha olefins, polyethylene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polycarbonate, and engineering thermoplastics and their blends; and lubricants and base oils, as well as engages in the refining and petrochemicals, retail operations, distribution, supply and trading, and power generation. It also markets and distributes hydrocarbons, petroleum products; and trades crude oil, refined petroleum, and liquid chemical products. In addition, the company develops, manufactures, and markets high-performance rubber; and provides crude oil storage, investment, consulting, information technology, personnel and other support, agri-nutrients, purchasing, engineering, benefits administration, oil field, insurance, pipeline transport, vendor sourcing, marketing and sales support, financing, support, and marine management and transportation services. Further, it engages in aircraft operations and leasing; aviation; sports club; retail fuel marketing and operations; investment management of post-employment benefit plans; wholesale fuel operations; importing and exporting refined products and crude oil; and real estate holdings. Additionally, the company engages in prospecting, exploring, drilling, processing, manufacturing, refining, extracting, and marketing hydrocarbon substances. The company was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Dhahran, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Saudi Aramco (2222) currently trades at 25.78 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.14 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 28.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 19.84 SAR per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the 25.78 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4.13 SAR, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 14.27 SAR (bear) to 27.71 SAR (bull), the price of 25.78 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Saudi Aramco reported revenue of 1.7T SAR in FY2025 versus 1.5T SAR in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was 348B SAR in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.2T SAR (≈ $1.7T) · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 3.18 · EPS (TTM) 1.69 SAR · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 20.8% · Return on equity 23.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 35.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −22%, 2222 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 14.27 SARFair Value 20.14 SARBull 27.71 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2504 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 23%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 44%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.8% a year for the price and −3.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Return on assets20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)42% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Aramco Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2222
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Aramco (2222) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 20.14 SAR versus a price of 25.78 SAR, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2222?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Aramco is 20.14 SAR (as of Sep 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 25.78 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2222?
Saudi Aramco has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Aramco (2222)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 20.14 SAR (as of Sep 25, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 14.27 SAR, optimistic scenario 27.71 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Aramco stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 20.14 SAR, about −22% upside versus a price of 25.78 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 14.27 SAR, optimistic scenario 27.71 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
Saudi Aramco reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8T SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 25, 2026).
Does Saudi Aramco pay a dividend?
Saudi Aramco currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saudi Aramco (2222)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Aramco would have to grow free cash flow by +4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.2 % per year. As of Sep 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2222 use?
Our models discount Saudi Aramco at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.01, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Aramco that is +4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Aramco (2222) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Aramco grew +14.2 % a year. The price currently implies +4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Aramco (2222) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Aramco (+4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.08 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Aramco produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Aramco it is 20.14 SAR per share (as of Sep 25, 2026), against a price of 25.78 SAR. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Aramco stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 25, 2026, 2222 trades above its calculated fair value: price 25.78 SAR, fair value 20.14 SAR, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2222?
No. The price is what the market pays today (25.78 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (20.14 SAR). For Saudi Aramco the two are 5.64 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Aramco worth?
The market values Saudi Aramco at about 6.2T SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 25, 2026). Per share that is 25.78 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 20.14 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2222?
Our models span a range for Saudi Aramco: cautious scenario 14.27 SAR, base 20.14 SAR, optimistic 27.71 SAR per share (as of Sep 25, 2026, price 25.78 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2222?
Saudi Aramco trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 (as of Sep 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 20.14 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.9, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 2222?
The PEG ratio of Saudi Aramco is 3.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Aramco (as of Sep 25, 2026): return on equity 23.8%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2222 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Aramco trades at 25.78 SAR, about 7% below its 52-week high of 27.61 SAR and 13% above the low of 22.83 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 20.14 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Aramco?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, TotalEnergies SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Aramco stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 25, 2026: price 25.78 SAR, calculated fair value 20.14 SAR (−22%), Quality Score 74/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2222 calculated?
We run Saudi Aramco through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 20.14 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Aramco itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 25.78 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 20.14 SAR, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Aramco right now?
A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (14.27 SAR to 27.71 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Saudi Aramco
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Aramco is 6.2T SAR (≈ $1.7T). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Aramco is 3.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Aramco are 1.69 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Aramco is 5.2% (payout 79.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
The net margin of Saudi Aramco is 20.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Aramco is 23.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Aramco is 35.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Aramco (2222)?
The operating margin of Saudi Aramco is 41.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Aramco (2222)?
Revenue at Saudi Aramco is growing +28.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Aramco (2222)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Aramco are growing +42.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi Aramco (2222) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Aramco is 121B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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