Saudi Arabian Oil Company (2222) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · SA · Market cap 6.3T SAR
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +1.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (25.18 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 22.26 SAR – 31.14 SAR · fair‑value band 14.17 SAR – 25.18 SAR · the 26.50 SAR price screens above the 20.14 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Saudi Arabian Oil Company (2222) currently trades at 26.50 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.14 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 24.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Saudi Arabian Oil Company generated revenue of 1.7T SAR at a net margin of 21.8%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.9%. Net debt stands at 121B SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 14.17 SAR (bear case) to 25.18 SAR (bull case); at 26.50 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -24%, 2222 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (19.67 SAR) versus Asset-Based (4.13 SAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Saudi Arabian Oil Company operates as an integrated energy and chemical company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Full company description
Saudi Arabian Oil Company operates as an integrated energy and chemical company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The Downstream segment produces various chemicals, such as aromatics, olefins, and polyolefins; polyols, isocyanates, and synthetic rubber; methanol, MTBE, glycols, linear alpha olefins, polyethylene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polycarbonate, and engineering thermoplastics and their blends; and lubricants and base oils, as well as engages in the refining and petrochemicals, retail operations, distribution, supply and trading, and power generation. It also markets and distributes hydrocarbons, petroleum products; and trades crude oil, refined petroleum, and liquid chemical products. In addition, the company develops, manufactures, and markets high-performance rubber; and provides crude oil storage, investment, consulting, information technology, personnel and other support, agri-nutrients, purchasing, engineering, benefits administration, oil field, insurance, pipeline transport, vendor sourcing, marketing and sales support, financing, support, and marine management and transportation services. Further, it engages in aircraft operations and leasing; aviation; sports club; retail fuel marketing and operations; investment management of post-employment benefit plans; wholesale fuel operations; importing and exporting refined products and crude oil; and real estate holdings. Additionally, the company engages in prospecting, exploring, drilling, processing, manufacturing, refining, extracting, and marketing hydrocarbon substances. The company was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Dhahran, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Saudi Arabian Oil Company reported revenue of 1.7T SAR in FY2025 versus 1.5T SAR in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was 348B SAR in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.
2222 screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Saudi Aramco backs India’s Mitti Labs to make Asia’s rice farming more water-resilient
- Saudi Aramco Q2 2026 earnings beat as Iran war lifts oil prices
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $159.80 | $88.98 | -44% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$23.84 | C$8.30 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.66 | ¥15.47 | +45% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €39.04 | €46.09 | +18% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$14.29 | C$8.20 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBRN | 314.50 MXN | 1,240 MXN | +294% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $42.93 | $8.99 | -79% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.05 | ¥3.67 | -27% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $40.93 | $34.53 | -16% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$88.25 | C$59.11 | -33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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