Saudi Aramco (2222) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · SA · Market cap 6.3T SAR (≈ $1.7T) · ISIN SA14TG012N13
What is Saudi Aramco really worth?
A solid business, but trading 29% above our fair value of 20.14 SAR.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −3.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (25.18 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 22.26 SAR – 31.14 SAR · fair‑value band 14.17 SAR – 25.18 SAR · the 25.96 SAR price screens above the 20.14 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Saudi Aramco (2222) currently trades at 25.96 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.14 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 28.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 19.67 SAR per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the 25.96 SAR price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4.13 SAR, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Saudi Aramco generated revenue of 1.7T SAR at a net margin of 21.8%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.9%. Net debt stands at 121B SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 14.17 SAR (bear case) to 25.18 SAR (bull case); at 25.96 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −22%, 2222 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.1347 SAR per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (19.67 SAR) versus Asset-Based (4.13 SAR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Saudi Arabian Oil Company operates as an integrated energy and chemical company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Full company description
Saudi Arabian Oil Company operates as an integrated energy and chemical company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil, condensate, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The Downstream segment produces various chemicals, such as aromatics, olefins, and polyolefins; polyols, isocyanates, and synthetic rubber; methanol, MTBE, glycols, linear alpha olefins, polyethylene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polycarbonate, and engineering thermoplastics and their blends; and lubricants and base oils, as well as engages in the refining and petrochemicals, retail operations, distribution, supply and trading, and power generation. It also markets and distributes hydrocarbons, petroleum products; and trades crude oil, refined petroleum, and liquid chemical products. In addition, the company develops, manufactures, and markets high-performance rubber; and provides crude oil storage, investment, consulting, information technology, personnel and other support, agri-nutrients, purchasing, engineering, benefits administration, oil field, insurance, pipeline transport, vendor sourcing, marketing and sales support, financing, support, and marine management and transportation services. Further, it engages in aircraft operations and leasing; aviation; sports club; retail fuel marketing and operations; investment management of post-employment benefit plans; wholesale fuel operations; importing and exporting refined products and crude oil; and real estate holdings. Additionally, the company engages in prospecting, exploring, drilling, processing, manufacturing, refining, extracting, and marketing hydrocarbon substances. The company was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Dhahran, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Saudi Aramco reported revenue of 1.7T SAR in FY2025 versus 1.5T SAR in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was 348B SAR in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.
2222 screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $156.44 | $88.98 | −43% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $201.86 | $90.66 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.23 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €40.28 | €39.46 | −2% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €75.55 | €69.02 | −9% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA | €7.11 | €2.03 | −71% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.52 | ¥4.59 | −17% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 395.90 | kr 338.01 | −15% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$94.21 | C$59.11 | −37% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $55.12 | $32.53 | −41% |
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