Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $606B · ISIN US30231G1022
What is Exxon Mobil Corp really worth?
Exxon Mobil Corp
XOM · US
A solid business, but trading 82% above our fair value of $88.98.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +5.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($117.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($59.15 to $117.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.53 – $170.31 · fair‑value band $59.15 – $117.22 · the $162.21 price screens above the $88.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) currently trades at $162.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $88.98, implying the stock looks roughly 82.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $88.09 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $162.21 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $41.93, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Exxon Mobil Corp generated revenue of $326B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at $32.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $59.15 (bear case) to $117.22 (bull case); at $162.21, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −45%, XOM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.29 per share, which is 1.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($88.09) versus Asset-Based ($41.93). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas.
Full company description
Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. Its Chemical Products segment manufactures and sells olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers finished lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. It is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data center, and lithium. In addition, the company offers aviation fuel. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Spring, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Exxon Mobil Corp reported revenue of $324B in FY2025 versus $277B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was $28.8B in FY2025, compounding +5.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.0 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
XOM screens 82% overvalued. Compare with Chevron Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Can ExxonMobil Benefit From the Current Energy Market Tightness?
- ExxonMobil (XOM) Was Excluded From A White House Oil Meeting
- Exxon’s Dividend Looks Safe Today—But What If Oil Prices Tumble?
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $201.86 | $90.66 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.23 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €40.28 | €39.46 | −2% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €75.55 | €69.02 | −9% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA | €7.11 | €2.03 | −71% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.52 | ¥4.59 | −17% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 395.90 | kr 338.01 | −15% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$94.21 | C$59.11 | −37% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $55.12 | $32.53 | −41% |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | $130.51 | $94.61 | −28% |
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