Suncor Energy Inc (SU) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $73.7B · ISIN CA8672241079
What is Suncor Energy Inc really worth?
Suncor Energy Inc
SU · US
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $70.17.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +5.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.14 – $69.27 · fair‑value band $52.63 – $91.88 · the $68.24 price screens below the $70.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Suncor Energy Inc (SU) currently trades at $68.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $70.17, implying the stock looks roughly 2.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $83.76 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $68.24 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $25.58, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Suncor Energy Inc generated revenue of $51.1B at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue grew 17.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.0%. Net debt stands at $14.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $52.63 (bear case) to $91.88 (bull case); at $68.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 3%, SU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.9241 per share, which is 1.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($83.76) versus Asset-Based ($25.58). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; and Refining and Marketing segments. The Oil Sands segment produces bitumen; and markets, supplies, and transports and manages crude oil, power, and byproducts.
Full company description
Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; and Refining and Marketing segments. The Oil Sands segment produces bitumen; and markets, supplies, and transports and manages crude oil, power, and byproducts. The Exploration and Production segment is involved in the offshore operations on the east coast of Canada, and onshore assets in Libya and Syria; and marketing and risk management of crude oil. The Refining and Marketing segment refines and supplies crude oil and intermediate feedstock into a range of petroleum and petrochemical products, as well as sells refined petroleum products to retail customers. This segment is also involved in the trading of crude oil and refined products, natural gas, and power. The company was formerly known as Suncor Inc. and changed its name to Suncor Energy Inc. in April 1997. Suncor Energy Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Suncor Energy Inc reported revenue of $48.9B in FY2025 versus $39.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $5.9B in FY2025, compounding +9.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.5 % · buybacks/dilution +2.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $156.44 | $88.98 | −43% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $201.86 | $90.66 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.23 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €40.28 | €39.46 | −2% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €75.55 | €69.02 | −9% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA | €7.11 | €2.03 | −71% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.52 | ¥4.59 | −17% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 395.90 | kr 338.01 | −15% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $55.12 | $32.53 | −41% |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | $130.51 | $94.61 | −28% |
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