Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $59.9B · ISIN CA4530384086
What is Imperial Oil Ltd really worth?
Imperial Oil Ltd
IMO · US
A solid business, but trading 39% above our fair value of $94.61.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +3.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($118.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.58 – $138.05 · fair‑value band $70.96 – $118.26 · the $131.94 price screens above the $94.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) currently trades at $131.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $94.61, implying the stock looks roughly 39.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $126.28 per share, and 2 of the 25 models we run sit above the $131.94 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $30.83, and 23 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Imperial Oil Ltd generated revenue of $46.9B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.4%. Net debt stands at $3.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $70.96 (bear case) to $118.26 (bull case); at $131.94, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −28%, IMO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7647 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($126.28) versus Asset-Based ($30.83). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Imperial Oil Limited engages in exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. The company operates in three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical segments. The Upstream segment explores and produces crude oil, natural gas, synthetic crude oil, and bitumen.
Full company description
Imperial Oil Limited engages in exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. The company operates in three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical segments. The Upstream segment explores and produces crude oil, natural gas, synthetic crude oil, and bitumen. The Downstream segment transports and refines crude oil; blends refined products; and distributes and markets refined products. This segment also transports crude oil production and third-party crude oil to refineries by contracted and common carrier pipelines; owns and operates refineries; maintains a distribution system to move petroleum products to market by pipeline, tanker, rail, and road transport; owns and operates fuel terminals, natural gas liquids, and products pipelines in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario; markets petroleum products under the Esso and Mobil brands; and sells petroleum products, including fuel, asphalt, and lubricants to industrial and transportation customers, independent marketers, resellers, and other refiners, as well as the agriculture, residential heating, and commercial markets through branded fuel and lubricant resellers. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets aliphatic solvents, plasticizer intermediates, and polyethylene resins; and markets refinery grade propylene. It also provides petrochemicals. The company was incorporated in 1880 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. Imperial Oil Limited operates as a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Imperial Oil Ltd reported revenue of $47.1B in FY2025 versus $37.5B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $3.3B in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +5.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
IMO screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $156.44 | $88.98 | −43% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $201.86 | $90.66 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.23 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €40.28 | €39.46 | −2% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €75.55 | €69.02 | −9% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA | €7.11 | €2.03 | −71% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.52 | ¥4.59 | −17% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 395.90 | kr 338.01 | −15% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$94.21 | C$59.11 | −37% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $55.12 | $32.53 | −41% |
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