Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Energy · ES · Market cap €104B · ISIN BRPETRACNPR6
At a glance
PBPetroleo Brasileiro S.A.XPBRA · MC
Price€8.09
Fair Value€2.06
Upside−74.5%
Quality61/100
A solid business, but trading 293% above our fair value of €2.06.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is €2.06 per share against a price of €8.09, so the fair value sits 75% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −10.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)
✓Wide moat 80/100
!Weak on future: 2 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange €1.50 to €2.96
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 6, 2026, revised from €2.03 to €2.06 (+1.5%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +13.5% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€2.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
A fairly wide model range (€1.50 to €2.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.1162 – €8.09 · fair‑value band €1.50 – €2.96 · the €8.09 price screens above the €2.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) currently trades at €8.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.06, implying the stock looks roughly 292.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €16.44 per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the €8.09 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.94, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Revenue grew 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.6%. Net debt stands at €20.1B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 5.1 (as of Jul 16, 2026). Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Scenario range: €1.50 (bear) to €2.96 (bull), the price of €8.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −75%, XPBRA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio5.1as of Jul 16, 2026
P/S ratio1.13P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)€1.38price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.1
Net margin22.0%FY2025
Return on equity25.6%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)18.2%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin32.0%TTM
Growth
Revenue growth (YoY)+0.4%3y avg −10.5%
EPS growth (YoY)−7.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow€16.5BFY2025
Net debt€20.1BFY2025 · ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality61/100
Of which business quality 58
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Profitability59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance84
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies.
Full company description
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. reported revenue of R$89.2B in FY2025 versus R$84.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was R$19.6B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€89.2B
Latest YoY
−2.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−10.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in BRL) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+0.0%
Dividend yield0.0%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36.9% (2021) → 31.1% (2025) · falling
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPBRA
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 56 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−74% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)32% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)42.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)5.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.52× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.23× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF7.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA0.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG4.05× · Priciest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years-4.7 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 4 years+1.5 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.6 %
FCF yield on price15.85 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.6 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 4
FUTURE2· sector 11
PAST100· sector 48
HEALTH84· sector 86
DIVIDEND100· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
Is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.06 versus a price of €8.09, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XPBRA?
Our model-based fair value for Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is €2.06 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.09.
What is the quality score of XPBRA?
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.06 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1.50, optimistic scenario €2.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.06, about −75% upside versus a price of €8.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1.50, optimistic scenario €2.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the net profit margin of XPBRA?
The net profit margin of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is about 21.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 21.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -4.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XPBRA use?
Our models discount Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. it is €2.06 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026), against a price of €8.09. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 6, 2026, XPBRA trades above its calculated fair value: price €8.09, fair value €2.06, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPBRA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.06). For Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. the two are €6.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. worth?
The market values Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. at about €104B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 6, 2026). Per share that is €8.09; our models calculate a fair value of €2.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPBRA?
Our models span a range for Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.: cautious scenario €1.50, base €2.06, optimistic €2.96 per share (as of Sep 6, 2026, price €8.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XPBRA?
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 (as of Sep 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.1, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 0.7.
What is the PEG ratio of XPBRA?
The PEG ratio of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. is 4.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (XPBRA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (as of Sep 6, 2026): return on equity 25.6%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPBRA from its 52-week high?
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. trades at €8.09, about 0% below its 52-week high of €8.08 and 88% above the low of €4.30 (as of Sep 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, Shell plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 6, 2026: price €8.09, calculated fair value €2.06 (−75%), Quality Score 61/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPBRA calculated?
We run Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €2.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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