Stockland (SGP) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$9.7B (≈ $7.0B) · ISIN AU000000SGP0
What is Stockland really worth?
A solid business, but trading 19% above our fair value of A$3.70.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Share price +4.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.54 – A$6.38 · fair‑value band A$3.12 – A$4.14 · the A$4.41 price screens above the A$3.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Stockland (SGP) currently trades at A$4.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.70, implying the stock looks roughly 19.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$5.21 per share, and 3 of the 14 models we run sit above the A$4.41 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.5700, and 11 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Stockland generated revenue of A$3.5B at a net margin of 24.8%. Revenue grew 30.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at A$4.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.12 (bear case) to A$4.14 (bull case); at A$4.41, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −16%, SGP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.1080 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$5.21) versus Growth DCF (A$0.5700). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Stockland is a leading creator and curator of connected communities with people at the heart of the places we create. For more than 70 years, we have built a proud legacy, helping more Australians achieve the dream of home ownership, and enabling the future of work and retail.
Full company description
Stockland is a leading creator and curator of connected communities with people at the heart of the places we create. For more than 70 years, we have built a proud legacy, helping more Australians achieve the dream of home ownership, and enabling the future of work and retail. Today, we continue to build on our history as one of Australia's largest diversified property groups to elevate the social value of our places, and create a tangible sense of human connection, belonging and community for our customers. We own, fund, develop and manage one of Australia's largest portfolios of residential and land lease communities, retail town centres, and workplace and logistics assets. Our approach is distinctive, bringing a unique combination of development expertise, scale, deep customer insight, and diverse talent - with care in everything we do. We are committed to contributing to the economic prosperity of Australia and the wellbeing of our communities and our planet. Stockland was incorporated in 1952 in Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Stockland reported revenue of A$3.1B in FY2025 versus A$2.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$826M in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SGP screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →
Peer Group
REIT - Diversified · 152 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodman Group GMG | A$27.55 | A$7.37 | −73% |
| VICI Properties Inc VICI | $25.87 | $40.82 | +58% |
| W. P. Carey Inc WPC | $70.51 | $34.80 | −51% |
| Charter Hall Group CHC | A$21.90 | A$10.99 | −50% |
| The GPT Group GPT | A$4.61 | A$3.49 | −24% |
| Mirvac Group MGR | A$1.85 | A$0.5700 | −69% |
| Broadstone Net Lease, Inc BNL | $21.55 | $10.91 | −49% |
| KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS | 8.60 MYR | 6.66 MYR | −23% |
| T82U T82U | 1.56 SGD | 1.02 SGD | −35% |
| CRRUN CRRUN | C$16.67 | C$7.03 | −58% |
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