Mirvac Group (MGR) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$6.7B (≈ $4.9B) · ISIN AU000000MGR9
What is Mirvac Group really worth?
A solid business, but trading 222% above our fair value of A$0.5700.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Share price +2.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.9900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (A$0.2200 to A$0.9900). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.54 – A$2.50 · fair‑value band A$0.2200 – A$0.9900 · the A$1.84 price screens above the A$0.5700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Mirvac Group (MGR) currently trades at A$1.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5700, implying the stock looks roughly 222.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$1.54 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$1.84 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at A$0.2100, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Mirvac Group generated revenue of A$2.9B at a net margin of 13.2%. Revenue grew 21.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. Net debt stands at A$4.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.2200 (bear case) to A$0.9900 (bull case); at A$1.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −69%, MGR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.0050 per share, which is 0.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$1.54) versus Growth DCF (A$0.2100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Mirvac Group is an Australian Securities Exchange listed company, with an integrated asset creation and curation capability. They own and manage assets across office, retail, industrial and the living sectors in their investment portfolio, with approximately 22 billion dollars of assets under management.
Full company description
Mirvac Group is an Australian Securities Exchange listed company, with an integrated asset creation and curation capability. They own and manage assets across office, retail, industrial and the living sectors in their investment portfolio, with approximately 22 billion dollars of assets under management. Its development activities span commercial and mixed-use and residential, with a development pipeline of approximately 29 billion dollars. The firm focus on delivering high-quality, innovative and sustainable real estate for our customers, while driving long-term value for their securityholders. Mirvac Group was founded in 1972 and incorporated in Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mirvac Group reported revenue of A$2.4B in FY2025 versus A$1.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$68.0M in FY2025, compounding −47.6%/yr from FY2021.
MGR screens 222% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Operating Profit and ...
- Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) is a favorite amongst institutional investors who own 54%
- Mirvac Group's (ASX:MGR) Financial Prospects Don't Look Very Positive: Could It Mean A Stock Price Drop In The Future?
- Investing in Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) three years ago would have delivered you a 29% gain
Peer Group
REIT - Diversified · 152 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodman Group GMG | A$27.55 | A$7.37 | −73% |
| VICI Properties Inc VICI | $25.87 | $40.82 | +58% |
| W. P. Carey Inc WPC | $70.51 | $34.80 | −51% |
| Charter Hall Group CHC | A$21.90 | A$10.99 | −50% |
| Stockland SGP | A$4.59 | A$3.70 | −19% |
| The GPT Group GPT | A$4.61 | A$3.49 | −24% |
| Broadstone Net Lease, Inc BNL | $21.55 | $10.91 | −49% |
| KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS | 8.60 MYR | 6.66 MYR | −23% |
| T82U T82U | 1.56 SGD | 1.02 SGD | −35% |
| CRRUN CRRUN | C$16.67 | C$7.03 | −58% |
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