Goodman Group (GMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$61.3B (≈ $44.2B) · ISIN AU000000GMG2
What is Goodman Group really worth?
A solid business, but trading 274% above our fair value of A$7.37.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Share price −7.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$10.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$4.54 to A$10.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$15.12 – A$38.10 · fair‑value band A$4.54 – A$10.49 · the A$27.55 price screens above the A$7.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Goodman Group (GMG) currently trades at A$27.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.37, implying the stock looks roughly 273.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of A$9.80 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the A$27.55 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$4.50, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Goodman Group generated revenue of A$3.1B at a net margin of 54.6%. Revenue declined 15.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at A$1.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$4.54 (bear case) to A$10.49 (bull case); at A$27.55, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −73%, GMG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.5400 per share, which is 7.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (A$9.80) versus Dividend Discount (A$4.50). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Goodman Group is a provider of essential infrastructure. It owns, develops and manages high quality, sustainable logistics properties and data centres in major global cities, that are critical to the digital economy. Goodman has operations in key consumer markets across Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the Americas.
Full company description
Goodman Group is a provider of essential infrastructure. It owns, develops and manages high quality, sustainable logistics properties and data centres in major global cities, that are critical to the digital economy. Goodman has operations in key consumer markets across Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the Americas. Goodman Group, comprised of the stapled entities Goodman Limited, Goodman Industrial Trust and Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited, is the largest property group on the Australian Securities Exchange, a top 20 entity by market capitalisation, and one of the largest listed specialist investment managers of industrial property globally The Group's property portfolio includes logistics and distribution centres, data centres, warehouses, light industrial, multi-storey industrial, and business parks. Goodman takes a long-term view, investing significantly alongside its capital Partners in its investment management platform and concentrating the portfolio where it can create the most value for customers and investors. Goodman Group was established on April 05, 2002 and incorporated in Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Goodman Group reported revenue of A$2.2B in FY2025 versus A$1.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.7B in FY2025, compounding −7.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.9 % · buybacks/dilution −0.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
GMG screens 274% overvalued. Compare with VICI Properties Inc →
Peer Group
REIT - Diversified · 152 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| VICI Properties Inc VICI | $25.87 | $40.82 | +58% |
| W. P. Carey Inc WPC | $70.51 | $34.80 | −51% |
| Charter Hall Group CHC | A$21.90 | A$10.99 | −50% |
| Stockland SGP | A$4.59 | A$3.70 | −19% |
| The GPT Group GPT | A$4.61 | A$3.49 | −24% |
| Mirvac Group MGR | A$1.85 | A$0.5700 | −69% |
| Broadstone Net Lease, Inc BNL | $21.55 | $10.91 | −49% |
| KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS | 8.60 MYR | 6.66 MYR | −23% |
| T82U T82U | 1.56 SGD | 1.02 SGD | −35% |
| CRRUN CRRUN | C$16.67 | C$7.03 | −58% |
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