Sunrun Inc (RUN) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $3.0B · ISIN US86771W1053
What is Sunrun Inc really worth?
Sunrun Inc
RUN · US
Below-average quality, trading 61% below our fair value of $22.77.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −19.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($17.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.67 – $58.66 · fair‑value band $17.08 – $28.46 · the $8.93 price screens below the $22.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Sunrun Inc (RUN) currently trades at $8.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.77, implying the stock looks roughly 60.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $106.65 per share, and 9 of the 12 models we run sit above the $8.93 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.80, and 3 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Sunrun Inc generated revenue of $3.2B at a net margin of 17.9%. Revenue grew 43.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −22.7%. Net debt stands at $13.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.08 (bear case) to $28.46 (bull case); at $8.93, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 155%, RUN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.45 per share, which is 6.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($106.65) versus Dividend Discount ($1.03). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 1
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Sunrun Inc. designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers.
Full company description
Sunrun Inc. designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States. The company sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. It offers battery storage along with solar energy systems; and sells services to commercial developers through multi-family and new homes. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. It also operates distributed electricity power plants. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sunrun Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was $450M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Solar · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar, Inc FSLR | $210.10 | $392.12 | +87% |
| Nextpower Inc NXT | $103.67 | $69.61 | −33% |
| Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER | ₹2,624 | ₹2,709 | +3% |
| Tongwei Co 600438 | ¥12.89 | ¥12.13 | −6% |
| Jinko Solar Co 688223 | ¥4.16 | ¥6.47 | +56% |
| Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH | $39.25 | $24.15 | −38% |
| CSI Solar Co 688472 | ¥10.28 | ¥6.76 | −34% |
| Hengdian Group 002056 | ¥21.53 | ¥31.86 | +48% |
| Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE | ₹1,017 | ₹648.94 | −36% |
| Trina Solar Co 688599 | ¥12.77 | ¥7.97 | −38% |
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