Tongwei Co Ltd (600438) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 58.9B CNY (≈ $8.8B) · ISIN CNE000001GS3
What is Tongwei Co Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of ¥12.13.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −10.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (¥5.88 to ¥18.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥10.48 – ¥62.55 · fair‑value band ¥5.88 – ¥18.38 · the ¥11.39 price screens below the ¥12.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Tongwei Co Ltd (600438) currently trades at ¥11.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.13, implying the stock looks roughly 6.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 85/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tongwei Co Ltd generated revenue of 80.3B CNY at a net margin of −11.7%. Revenue declined 23.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −20.9%. Net debt stands at 57.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.88 (bear case) to ¥18.38 (bull case); at ¥11.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 7%, 600438 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥13.84) versus Asset-Based (¥5.79). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (65).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Tongwei Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sales of industrial silicon and high-purity crystalline silicon for solar energy, chemical products, silicon rods, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules in China and internationally.
Full company description
Tongwei Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sales of industrial silicon and high-purity crystalline silicon for solar energy, chemical products, silicon rods, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules in China and internationally. It is involved in the generation of electricity and related businesses; production and sale of feed, etc.; and aquaculture, seedling cultivation, food processing, etc. The company also engages in technical services; power supply; photovoltaic new energy; farming; sale of battery cell and components; and photovoltaic power operation. Tongwei Co., Ltd was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tongwei Co Ltd reported revenue of 84.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 64.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −9.6B CNY in FY2025.
of which total revenue +28.7 % · buybacks/dilution −9.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Solar · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar, Inc FSLR | $210.10 | $392.12 | +87% |
| Nextpower Inc NXT | $103.67 | $69.61 | −33% |
| Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER | ₹2,624 | ₹2,709 | +3% |
| Jinko Solar Co 688223 | ¥4.16 | ¥6.47 | +56% |
| Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH | $39.25 | $24.15 | −38% |
| CSI Solar Co 688472 | ¥10.28 | ¥6.76 | −34% |
| Hengdian Group 002056 | ¥21.53 | ¥31.86 | +48% |
| Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE | ₹1,017 | ₹648.94 | −36% |
| Trina Solar Co 688599 | ¥12.77 | ¥7.97 | −38% |
| JA Solar Technology Co 002459 | ¥6.81 | ¥3.32 | −51% |
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