Ultragenyx (RARE) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $3.0B · ISIN US90400D1081
What is Ultragenyx really worth?
Ultragenyx
RARE · US
Below-average quality, trading 38% below our fair value of $23.92.
Risks
Fair value as of: Jun 23, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 73 days ago
Share price −42.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($17.94). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.85 – $102.88 · fair‑value band $17.94 – $29.90 · the $14.85 price screens below the $23.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
Analysis
Ultragenyx (RARE) currently trades at $14.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.92, implying the stock looks roughly 37.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ultragenyx generated revenue of $670M at a net margin of −90.9%. Revenue declined 2.2% year over year. Net debt stands at $842M. Fundamentals as of Jun 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.94 (bear case) to $29.90 (bull case); at $14.85, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at 61%, RARE screens cheaper than that median.
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jun 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
Full company description
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. Its biologic products include Crysvita (burosumab), an antibody targeting fibroblast growth factor 23 for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia, as well as tumor-induced osteomalacia; Mepsevii, an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of children and adults with Mucopolysaccharidosis VII; Dojolvi for the treatment of long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders; and Evkeeza (evinacumab) for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. The company's products candidates that are in Phase 3 clinical trials include UX143, a human monoclonal antibody for the treatment of osteogenesis imperfecta; UX111, an AAV9 gene therapy product candidate for the treatment of patients with Sanfilippo syndrome type A, or MPS IIIA, a rare lysosomal storage disease; DTX401, an adeno-associated virus 8 (AAV8) gene therapy clinical candidate for the treatment of patients with glycogen storage disease type Ia; DTX301, an AAV8 gene therapy for the treatment of patients with ornithine transcarbamylase; and GTX-102, an antisense oligonucleotide for the treatment of Angelman syndrome. It also develops UX701 that is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Wilson disease; and UX053 for the treatment of glycogen storage disease type III. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. has collaboration and license agreement with Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd.; Saint Louis University; Baylor Research Institute; REGENXBIO Inc.; GeneTx; Mereo; University of Pennsylvania; Solid Biosciences Inc.; Regeneron; Abeona; and Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ultragenyx reported revenue of $673M in FY2025 versus $351M in FY2021, a compound +17.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$575M in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ultragenyx drops on Phase 3 trial failure for Angelman syndrome drug
- Ultragenyx Announces Phase 3 Aspire results in Angelman Syndrome
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Wins FDA Approval, Is The Stock Fully Priced?
- Ultragenyx Announces the Publication of a Successful 96-Week Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial with Crossover Treatment of GENGLYCOS™ (al
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 622 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $547.55 | $278.78 | −49% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $807.71 | $594.40 | −26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | −67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,518,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | −30% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$174.50 | A$141.68 | −19% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | −77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | −60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 190,700 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −61% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | −69% |
| BioNTech SE BNTX | $111.40 | $45.66 | −59% |
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