BioNTech SE (BNTX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $23.5B · ISIN US09075V1026
What is BioNTech SE really worth?
BioNTech SE
BNTX · US
A solid business, but trading 125% above our fair value of $45.66.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from $45.75 to $45.66 (−0.2%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +12.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($50.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $78.36 – $441.38 · fair‑value band $40.81 – $50.52 · the $102.88 price screens above the $45.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
BioNTech SE (BNTX) currently trades at $102.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.66, implying the stock looks roughly 125.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $58.13 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $102.88 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $43.65, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, BioNTech SE generated revenue of $2.8B at a net margin of −44.6%. Revenue declined 35.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −6.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $7.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $40.81 (bear case) to $50.52 (bull case); at $102.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −56%, BNTX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($58.13) versus Multiples ($43.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
BioNTech SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and commercialization of immunotherapies in Germany. The company offers BNT162, an mRNA vaccine for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Full company description
BioNTech SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and commercialization of immunotherapies in Germany. The company offers BNT162, an mRNA vaccine for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 virus. It also develops oncology drugs under Phase III clinical trial, including Gotistobart for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, Pumitamig for small cell lung cancer and advanced/metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, and Trastuzumab pamirtecan for metastatic breast cancer and epirubicin and cyclophosphamide; and drugs under Phase 2/3 clinical trial, such as BNT113 for human papillomavirus and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, as well as Pumitamig for metastatic colorectal and non-small cell lung cancer. In addition, the company engages in the development of oncology drugs under Phase II clinical trial comprising BNT116 for advance non-small cell lung cancer, BNT326/YL202 for multiple solid tumors and advanced/metastatic breast cancer, Autogene cevumeran for advance colorectal cancer, and Gotistobart for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, as well as Pumitamig for glioblastoma, hepatocellular carcinoma, malignant pleural mesothelioma, neuroendocrine neoplasms, and metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Further, it develops BNT166 which is Phase II clinical trial for mpox virus; and infectious diseases drugs under Phase 1/2 clinical trial, which include BNT162 + BNT161 for SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, BNT164 for tuberculosis, BNT165 for malaria, and BNT166 for mpox. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Mainz, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BioNTech SE reported revenue of €2.8B in FY2025 versus €19.0B in FY2021, a compound −38.3%/yr. Reported net income was −€1.1B in FY2025.
BNTX screens 125% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- BNTX Ends Colorectal Cancer Immunotherapy Study, Stock Down
- BioNTech (BNTX) Ended A Phase 2 Colorectal Cancer Trial
- Arcturus, Moderna fall after BioNTech's cancer vaccine setback
- BioNTech Kills a Cancer Trial Roche Helped Build
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 622 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $547.55 | $278.78 | −49% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $807.71 | $594.40 | −26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | −67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,518,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | −30% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$174.50 | A$141.68 | −19% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | −77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | −60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 190,700 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −61% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | −69% |
| Incyte Corporation INCY | $123.22 | $115.79 | −6% |
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