Shell plc (R6C) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · DE · Market cap €174B
What is Shell plc really worth?
A solid business, trading 31% below our fair value of €58.52.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from €58.13 to €58.52 (+0.7%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +5.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (€41.05 to €74.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €15.36 – €41.04 · fair‑value band €41.05 – €74.06 · the €40.29 price screens below the €58.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Shell plc (R6C) currently trades at €40.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €58.52, implying the stock looks roughly 31.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €70.16 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the €40.29 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €15.88, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shell plc generated revenue of €220B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 36.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at €52.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €41.05 (bear case) to €74.06 (bull case); at €40.29, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 45%, R6C screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€70.16) versus Dividend Discount (€15.88). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company worldwide. The company operates through Integrated Gas, Upstream, Oil Products, Chemicals segments.
Full company description
Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company worldwide. The company operates through Integrated Gas, Upstream, Oil Products, Chemicals segments. It explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; markets and transports oil and gas; produces gas-to-liquids fuels and other products; and operates upstream and midstream infrastructure necessary to deliver gas to market. The company also markets and trades natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, electricity, carbon-emission rights; and markets and sells LNG as a fuel for heavy-duty vehicles and marine vessels. In addition, it trades in and refines crude oil and other feed stocks, such as gasoline, diesel, heating oil, aviation fuel, marine fuel, biofuel, lubricants, bitumen, and sulphur; produces and sells petrochemicals for industrial use; and manages oil sands activities. Further, the company produces base chemicals comprising ethylene, propylene, and aromatics, as well as intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer, propylene oxide, solvents, detergent alcohols, ethylene oxide, and ethylene glycol. The company was formerly known as Royal Dutch Shell plc and changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. Shell plc was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in The Hague, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2017 – FY2021 · reported fiscal years
Shell plc reported revenue of $262B in FY2021 versus $305B in FY2017, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $20.1B in FY2021, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2017.
of which total revenue −4.0 % · buybacks/dilution −2.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $156.44 | $88.98 | −43% |
| Chevron Corporation CVX | $201.86 | $90.66 | −55% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥11.23 | ¥15.47 | +38% |
| TotalEnergies SE TOTB | €75.55 | €69.02 | −9% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA | €7.11 | €2.03 | −71% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.52 | ¥4.59 | −17% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | kr 395.90 | kr 338.01 | −15% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$94.21 | C$59.11 | −37% |
| Eni S.p.A E | $55.12 | $32.53 | −41% |
| Imperial Oil Limited IMO | $130.51 | $94.61 | −28% |
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