Post Holdings Inc (POST) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $3.9B · ISIN US7374461041
What is Post Holdings Inc really worth?
Post Holdings Inc
POST · US
Below-average quality, trading 26% below our fair value of $114.26.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $118.54 to $114.26 (−3.6%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price −7.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($71.86 to $194.43). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.08 – $120.72 · fair‑value band $71.86 – $194.43 · the $84.26 price screens below the $114.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Post Holdings Inc (POST) currently trades at $84.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $114.26, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $138.32 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $84.26 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $12.76, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Post Holdings Inc generated revenue of $8.4B at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue grew 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at $7.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $71.86 (bear case) to $194.43 (bull case); at $84.26, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 36%, POST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.55 per share, which is 4.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($138.32) versus Economic Profit ($12.76). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
Notify me when POST reaches fair value
Put POST on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail segments.
Full company description
Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, and Refrigerated Retail segments. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereals under Honey Bunches of Oats, Pebbles, and Malt-O-Meal brands; hot cereal; peanut butter under the Peter Pan brand; and branded and private label pet food under Rachael Ray Nutrish, Nature's Recipe, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits and Gravy Train brands. The Weetabix segment manufactures, markets, and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal under Weetabix and Alpen brands; hot cereals and other cereal-based food products; private label cereals; and protein-based shakes under the UFIT brand, and nutritional snacks. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg products primarily under Papetti's and Abbotsford Farms brands, as well as potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. The segment also manufactures certain meat products. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dish, potato, sausage products under Bob Evans, Bob Evans Farms, and Simply Potatoes brands; eggs and egg products under Bob Evans Egg Whites and Egg Beaters brands; and cheese and other dairy products under Crystal Farms brand. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, dollar stores, discounters, wholesalers, convenience stores, pet supply retailers, drug store customers, foodservice distributors, and national restaurant chains, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The company was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Post Holdings Inc reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $5.0B in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was $336M in FY2025, compounding +19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Watch POST: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Post Holdings Stock Plunges 11.8% in 1 Month: Is It a Buy Now?
- Post Holdings Q3 Earnings Beat: Can Foodservice Drive 2027?
- Post Holdings Stock: Buy, Hold or Wait as Growth Meets Value
- The 5 Most Interesting Analyst Questions From Post’s Q2 Earnings Call
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 648 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 78.62 | CHF 57.26 | −27% |
| Danone S.A BN | €64.28 | €48.41 | −25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,478 | ₹251.94 | −83% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $25.13 | $24.59 | −2% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥35.05 | ¥21.93 | −37% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥25.51 | ¥32.50 | +27% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.28 | ¥9.89 | −61% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $40.44 | $28.32 | −30% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.64 SGD | 3.89 SGD | +7% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,511 | ₹1,765 | −68% |
Compare Post Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Post Holdings Inc (POST) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of POST?
What is the quality score of POST?
What is the revenue of Post Holdings Inc (POST)?
What is the net profit margin of POST?
Watch Post Holdings Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Post Holdings Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.