Pennon Group (PNN) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · GB · Market cap 2.3B GBX
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −4.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£3.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £3.87 – £13.49 · fair‑value band £2.10 – £3.46 · the £4.68 price screens above the £2.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Pennon Group (PNN) currently trades at £4.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.31, implying the stock looks roughly 50.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Pennon Group generated revenue of £1.2B at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue grew 24.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. Net debt stands at £4.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £2.10 (bear case) to £3.46 (bull case); at £4.68, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -51%, PNN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (£4.09) versus Earnings-Based (£1.33). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Pennon Group Plc provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. The company operates through two segments, Water and Non-Household Retail. Pennon Group Plc was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Exeter, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Pennon Group reported revenue of £1.3B in FY2026 versus £792M in FY2022, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was £91.5M in FY2026, compounding +56.1%/yr from FY2022.
PNN screens 51% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Pennon Group (LSE:PNN) Stock Gets Fair Value Trim After Analyst Target Cuts
- Pennon Group PLC (PEGRF) Full Year 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Robust Profit Growth Amid ...
- Pennon Group H2 Earnings Call Highlights
- How The Pennon Group (LSE:PNN) Narrative Is Evolving Around £6 Analyst Targets
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 68 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $134.92 | $65.80 | -51% |
| SBSP3 SBSP3 | R$26.12 | R$31.23 | +20% |
| SBS SBS | $5.10 | $8.12 | +59% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $40.08 | $21.81 | -46% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.15 | HK$12.82 | +57% |
| CSMG3 CSMG3 | R$60.57 | R$60.17 | -1% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.61 | ¥33.29 | +12% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $87.54 | $47.94 | -45% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.14 | ¥9.09 | +27% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $49.98 | $33.56 | -33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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