American Water Works (AWK) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $26.2B · ISIN US0304201033
What is American Water Works really worth?
American Water Works
AWK · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 114% above our fair value of $65.80.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +5.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($99.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($49.35 to $99.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $107.75 – $171.30 · fair‑value band $49.35 – $99.51 · the $140.89 price screens above the $65.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
American Water Works (AWK) currently trades at $140.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.80, implying the stock looks roughly 114.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $88.71 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $140.89 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $24.38, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, American Water Works generated revenue of $5.2B at a net margin of 21.2%. Revenue grew 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at $15.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $49.35 (bear case) to $99.51 (bull case); at $140.89, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at −53%, AWK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.73 per share, which is 2.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($88.71) versus Economic Profit ($24.38). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
American Water Works Company, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides water and wastewater services in the United States. It offers water and wastewater services on military installations; and undertakes contracts with municipal customers, primarily to operate and manage water and wastewater facilities, as well as offers other related services.
Full company description
American Water Works Company, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides water and wastewater services in the United States. It offers water and wastewater services on military installations; and undertakes contracts with municipal customers, primarily to operate and manage water and wastewater facilities, as well as offers other related services. The company also operates approximately 80 surface water treatment plants; 520 groundwater treatment plants; 170 wastewater treatment plants; 55,000 miles of transmission, distribution, and collection mains and pipes; 1,200 groundwater wells; 1,800 water and wastewater pumping stations; 1,100 treated water storage facilities; and 75 dams. In addition, it offers water and wastewater services to 14 states serving approximately 3.6 million active customers. The company serves residential customers; commercial customers, including food and beverage providers, commercial property developers and proprietors, and energy suppliers; fire service and private fire customers; industrial customers, such as large-scale manufacturers, mining, and production operations; public authorities comprising government buildings and other public sector facilities, such as schools and universities; and other utilities and community water and wastewater systems. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Camden, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Water Works reported revenue of $5.1B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding −3.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.5 % · buybacks/dilution −0.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AWK screens 114% overvalued. Compare with SBS →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- West Virginia American Water Announces $900,000 Infrastructure Project in Charleston
- Illinois American Water Announces Upcoming Hydrant Flushing in Streator
- Tennessee American Water Provides Additional PFAS Settlement Credit to Customers
- Why Is American Water Works (AWK) Down 0.1% Since Last Earnings Report?
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBS SBS | $4.82 | $8.13 | +69% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $41.10 | $21.81 | −47% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.15 | HK$12.82 | +57% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.61 | ¥33.29 | +12% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $89.88 | $47.94 | −47% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.35 | ¥9.09 | +24% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $50.48 | $33.56 | −34% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.14 | ¥2.77 | −33% |
| Beijing Enterprises Water Group 0371 | HK$1.74 | HK$3.00 | +73% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $62.57 | $25.29 | −60% |
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