Chongqing Water Group Co Ltd (601158) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap 19.8B CNY (≈ $3.0B) · ISIN CNE100000MT0
What is Chongqing Water Group Co Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 49% above our fair value of ¥2.77.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −0.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.86 – ¥6.12 · fair‑value band ¥2.15 – ¥2.91 · the ¥4.12 price screens above the ¥2.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Chongqing Water Group Co Ltd (601158) currently trades at ¥4.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.77, implying the stock looks roughly 48.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥2.86 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥4.12 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥0.3500, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chongqing Water Group Co Ltd generated revenue of 7.5B CNY at a net margin of 11.1%. Revenue grew 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at 7.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.15 (bear case) to ¥2.91 (bull case); at ¥4.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at −33%, 601158 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0156 per share, which is 0.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥2.86) versus Growth DCF (¥0.3500). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. engages in water supply, wastewater treatment, sludge treatment and disposal, engineering construction, and other businesses in China. The company is also involved in the production and supply of tap water; sewage water treatment; and recycled water. It operates and manages tap water and sewage treatment plants.
Full company description
Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. engages in water supply, wastewater treatment, sludge treatment and disposal, engineering construction, and other businesses in China. The company is also involved in the production and supply of tap water; sewage water treatment; and recycled water. It operates and manages tap water and sewage treatment plants. In addition, the company engages in municipal public works; building construction; water conservancy and hydroelectric engineering; electromechanical engineering and other engineering construction; environmental pollution control, construction engineering and municipal public engineering supervision; and manufacture of water supply and drainage equipment. Further, it sells materials; and installs pipeline and water meters, etc. Additionally, the company collects physical, chemical, and biochemical treatment of domestic and industrial sewage, initial rainwater, and other wastewater, ensuring compliance with national environmental standards before discharge; manages wet sludge generated from urban wastewater treatment plants, utilizing aerobic fermentation, co-firing, combined heat and power, and thermal drying to achieve reduction, stabilization, and harmlessness. The company was formerly known as Chongqing Water Holding (Group) Co., Ltd. Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is based in Chongqing, China. Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. is a subsidiary of Chongqing Derun Environment Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chongqing Water Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 7.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was 809M CNY in FY2025, compounding −21.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.4 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
601158 screens 49% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $138.30 | $65.80 | −52% |
| SBS SBS | $4.82 | $8.13 | +69% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $41.10 | $21.81 | −47% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.15 | HK$12.82 | +57% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.61 | ¥33.29 | +12% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $89.88 | $47.94 | −47% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.35 | ¥9.09 | +24% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $50.48 | $33.56 | −34% |
| Beijing Enterprises Water Group 0371 | HK$1.74 | HK$3.00 | +73% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $62.57 | $25.29 | −60% |
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