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Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$50.7B (≈ $6.5B) · ISIN HK0270001396

What is Guangdong Investment Ltd really worth?

GI Guangdong Investment Ltd 0270 · HK
PriceHK$8.82
Fair ValueHK$12.82
Upside+45.4%
Quality72/100

A solid business, trading 31% below our fair value of HK$12.82.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 24.9% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (14/15)
✓Wide moat 66/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −4.1 %/yr)
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range HK$9.61 – HK$16.02

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +5.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$9.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$8.85 HK$2.94 Fair Value HK$12.82 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.94 – HK$8.85 · fair‑value band HK$9.61 – HK$16.02 · the HK$8.82 price screens below the HK$12.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) currently trades at HK$8.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.82, implying the stock looks roughly 31.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$15.60 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$8.82 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$4.40, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Investment Ltd generated revenue of HK$19.3B at a net margin of 24.9%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at HK$7.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$9.61 (bear case) to HK$16.02 (bull case); at HK$8.82, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 45%, 0270 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.2842 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$12.52 HK$19.57 HK$30.35 79
Growth DCF HK$12.73 HK$18.97 HK$27.92 78
Owner Earnings HK$10.80 HK$16.89 HK$26.21 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$12.52 HK$19.57 HK$30.35 79
Owner Earnings HK$10.80 HK$16.89 HK$26.21 75
5Y Revenue Exit HK$7.44 HK$10.70 HK$14.70 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$10.81 HK$17.02 HK$24.19 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$9.88 HK$15.28 HK$20.89 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$9.00 HK$12.42 HK$16.76 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$11.31 HK$16.81 HK$24.00 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$10.72 HK$15.60 HK$21.48 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$4.84 HK$15.15 HK$20.16 64
Lynch FV HK$3.31 HK$4.72 HK$6.14 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$3.31 HK$4.72 HK$6.14 57
EPV HK$7.67 HK$8.97 HK$10.10 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$3.12 HK$6.48 HK$10.28 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.12 HK$5.16 HK$6.80 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$9.61 HK$12.82 HK$16.02 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.40 HK$7.20 HK$9.00 58
P/B Multiple HK$8.86 HK$11.82 HK$14.77 55
EV/EBIT HK$12.48 HK$16.66 HK$20.85 66
EV/EBITDA HK$11.13 HK$14.87 HK$18.61 67
EV/Revenue HK$4.95 HK$7.11 HK$9.27 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.28 HK$4.40 HK$6.57 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$12.73 HK$18.97 HK$27.92 78
Rev-Margin DCF HK$7.44 HK$10.84 HK$14.82 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$5.92 HK$6.70 HK$11.03 74
ROIC Compounder HK$7.95 HK$10.13 HK$12.88 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$8.11 HK$11.58 HK$15.05 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$15.60) versus Asset-Based (HK$4.40). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.9 as of Jul 1, 2026
P/S ratio 2.70 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.4200 price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9
Dividend yield 4.4% payout 91.8%
Net margin 24.7% FY2025
Return on equity 9.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 44.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$19.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.3% 3y avg −6.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +21.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$7.2B FY2025
Net debt HK$7.1B FY2025 · ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Guangdong Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in water resources, property investment and development, department store operation, hotel ownership, energy project operation and management, and road and bridge operation businesses.

Full company description

Guangdong Investment Limited, an investment holding company, engages in water resources, property investment and development, department store operation, hotel ownership, energy project operation and management, and road and bridge operation businesses. The company provides water distribution, sewage treatment, and water pipeline installation and consultancy services; constructs water supply and sewage treatment infrastructure; and sells machineries. It also invests in and rents various properties; and offers property management services for various commercial properties. In addition, the company operates department stores, as well as engages in sale of goods and concessionaire; and management and sub-letting of operating area. Further, it is involved in the operation of coal-fired power plants that supply electricity and steam; and hotels, as well as provision of hotel management services to third parties. The company invests in various road and bridge projects, which engages in the toll road operation and road management; and provides treasury, marketing management, and environmental engineering services. The company was formerly known as Union Globe Development Limited and changed its name to Guangdong Investment Limited in January 1987. The company was incorporated in 1973 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Guangdong Investment Limited operates as a subsidiary of GDH Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong Investment Ltd reported revenue of HK$18.8B in FY2025 versus HK$29.7B in FY2021, a compound −10.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$4.7B in FY2025, compounding −0.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$18.8B
Latest YoY
+1.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (32Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+5.6% (1.2 + 4.4)
Revenue −10.8%/yr
FY21 HK$29.7B
FY22 HK$23.2B
FY23 HK$24.2B
FY24 HK$18.5B
FY25 HK$18.8B
Net income −0.2%/yr
FY21 HK$4.7B
FY22 HK$4.8B
FY23 HK$3.1B
FY24 HK$3.1B
FY25 HK$4.7B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −2.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.6 %

of which total revenue +9.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %

EBIT margin −4.4 %
Tax rate −2.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Guangdong Investment Ltd · Fair Value
HK$12.82 +31%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Investment Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0270

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +45% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 45% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.36× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.18× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.64× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.94× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE94 · sector 0
FUTURE47 · sector 28
PAST37 · sector 31
HEALTH82 · sector 65
DIVIDEND87 · sector 52

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
American Water Works Company AWK $138.30 $65.80 −52%
SBS SBS $4.82 $8.13 +69%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG $41.10 $21.81 −47%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323 ¥29.61 ¥33.29 +12%
American States Water Company AWR $89.88 $47.94 −47%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 ¥7.35 ¥9.09 +24%
California Water Service Group CWT $50.48 $33.56 −34%
Chongqing Water Group 601158 ¥4.14 ¥2.77 −33%
Beijing Enterprises Water Group 0371 HK$1.74 HK$3.00 +73%
H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO $62.57 $25.29 −60%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.82 versus a price of HK$8.82, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0270?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Investment Ltd is HK$12.82 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.82.
What is the quality score of 0270?
Guangdong Investment Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Investment Ltd (0270)?
Guangdong Investment Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$19.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0270?
The net profit margin of Guangdong Investment Ltd is about 24.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 24.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guangdong Investment Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangdong Investment Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.37% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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