American States Water Company (AWR) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $3.3B · ISIN US0298991011
What is American States Water Company really worth?
American States Water Company
AWR · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 87% above our fair value of $47.94.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +5.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($59.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.95 – $93.76 · fair‑value band $34.77 – $59.93 · the $89.65 price screens above the $47.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
American States Water Company (AWR) currently trades at $89.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.94, implying the stock looks roughly 87.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $51.64 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $89.65 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $17.57, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, American States Water Company generated revenue of $679M at a net margin of 19.7%. Revenue grew 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.2%. Net debt stands at $924M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $34.77 (bear case) to $59.93 (bull case); at $89.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at −47%, AWR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.9826 per share, which is 2.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($51.64) versus Earnings-Based ($17.57). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Services.
Full company description
American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Services. The company purchases, produces, distributes, and sells water, as well as distributes electricity. It provides water service to approximately 265,100 customers; and distributes electricity to approximately 24,900 customers in several San Bernardino County Mountain communities in California. The company also offers water and/or wastewater services at various military installations. American States Water Company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in San Dimas, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American States Water Company reported revenue of $658M in FY2025 versus $499M in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was $130M in FY2025, compounding +8.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AWR screens 87% overvalued. Compare with SBS →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- American States Water (AWR) Raises Dividend Again, But Is The Valuation Already Priced In
- American States Water Company (AWR): This Quiet Dividend King Keeps Raising the Bar
- American States Water Co's Dividend Analysis
- Can AWR Continue Raising Dividends for Long-Term Shareholders?
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $138.30 | $65.80 | −52% |
| SBS SBS | $4.82 | $8.13 | +69% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $41.10 | $21.81 | −47% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.15 | HK$12.82 | +57% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.61 | ¥33.29 | +12% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.35 | ¥9.09 | +24% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $50.48 | $33.56 | −34% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.14 | ¥2.77 | −33% |
| Beijing Enterprises Water Group 0371 | HK$1.74 | HK$3.00 | +73% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $62.57 | $25.29 | −60% |
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