Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $322B · ISIN US69608A1088
What is Palantir Technologies Inc. really worth?
Palantir Technologies Inc.
PLTR · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 1,422% above our fair value of $11.99.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +12.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($8.99 to $25.44). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.00 – $207.18 · fair‑value band $8.99 – $25.44 · the $182.53 price screens above the $11.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) currently trades at $182.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.99, implying the stock looks roughly 1,422.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $34.04 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $182.53 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.16, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Palantir Technologies Inc. generated revenue of $5.2B at a net margin of 43.7%. Revenue grew 84.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.99 (bear case) to $25.44 (bull case); at $182.53, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −93%, PLTR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.6023 per share, which is 5.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($34.04) versus Asset-Based ($2.16). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It provides Palantir Gotham integrates with other platforms for defense offerings which enables users to see, understand, and act in the modern battlespace; operations centers to the tactical edge; integrating data from domains and sensors in near real-time; and situational awareness and accelerating operational decision-making, as well as facilitates the hand-off between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform. The company also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that helps organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place. In addition, it provides Palantir Apollo, a software that delivers software and updates across the business, as well as enables customers to deploy their software virtually in any environment; and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform that provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLMs) that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations' actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents. The company also has a strategic partnership with Ondas Inc. to develop and deploy AI-enabled operational capabilities to scale stratospheric, aerial, and land-based ISR missions. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Aventura, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Palantir Technologies Inc. reported revenue of $4.5B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +30.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.6B in FY2025.
PLTR screens 1,422% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Palantir Shares Sink Despite $192 Million Army Contract
- Palantir Stock Gets New Problem From Google
- Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Could Be 5% Overvalued On Peter Zaffino Hire
- Palantir Heads for Worst Day in 7 Months. It Isn’t the Only Software Stock Sinking.
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $480.35 | $365.74 | −24% |
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | $151.94 | $117.84 | −22% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $166.00 | $61.46 | −63% |
| Synopsys, Inc SNPS | $442.61 | $101.19 | −77% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | −36% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $105.26 | $71.79 | −32% |
| NetApp, Inc NTAP | $190.64 | $154.83 | −19% |
| Adyen N.V ADYEN | €1,007 | €707.53 | −30% |
| MongoDB, Inc MDB | $440.58 | $93.91 | −79% |
| Okta, Inc OKTA | $166.23 | $30.50 | −82% |
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