Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $369B · ISIN US68389X1054
What is Oracle Corporation really worth?
Oracle Corporation
ORCL · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 31% above our fair value of $117.84.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +5.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($82.49 to $173.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.97 – $324.63 · fair‑value band $82.49 – $173.04 · the $154.04 price screens above the $117.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) currently trades at $154.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $117.84, implying the stock looks roughly 30.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $117.84 per share, and 3 of the 14 models we run sit above the $154.04 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $54.46, and 11 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Oracle Corporation generated revenue of $64.1B at a net margin of 25.3%. Revenue grew 21.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 57.6%. Net debt stands at $125B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $82.49 (bear case) to $173.04 (bull case); at $154.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −24%, ORCL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 3 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.9753 per share, which is 0.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($117.84) versus Asset-Based ($9.89). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 9
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering include various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning ERP, Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management EPM, Oracle Fusion cloud …
Full company description
Oracle Corporation offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments worldwide. Its Oracle cloud software as a service offering include various cloud software applications, including Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise resource planning ERP, Oracle Fusion cloud enterprise performance management EPM, Oracle Fusion cloud supply chain and manufacturing management SCM, Oracle Fusion cloud human capital management HCM, and NetSuite applications suite, Oracle Health applications, as well as Oracle Fusion Sales, Service, and Marketing. The company also offers cloud-based industry solutions for various industries; Oracle cloud license and on-premise license; and Oracle license support services. In addition, it provides cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies, such as the Oracle Database and MySQL Database; Java, a software development language; and middleware, including development tools and others. The company's cloud and license business' infrastructure technologies also comprise cloud-based compute, storage, and networking capabilities; and Oracle autonomous database, as well as AI, Internet-of-Things, machine learning, digital assistant, and blockchain. Further, it provides hardware products and other hardware-related software offerings, including Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, industry-specific hardware, virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware support services, and consulting and advanced customer services. It markets and sells its cloud, license, hardware, support, and services offerings directly to businesses in various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, as well as through indirect channels. Oracle Corporation has a strategic alliance with Metron, Inc. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Oracle Corporation reported revenue of $67.4B in FY2026 versus $42.4B in FY2022, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $17.1B in FY2026, compounding +26.3%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +5.2 % · buybacks/dilution +4.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ORCL screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Oracle's Next Earnings Report Could Move the Stock 11%
- Oracle's Successive Layoffs to Generate Funds for AI Infrastructure Buildout Carry Execution Risk, RBC Says
- Stock Market Today: Dow Sinks As Inflation Report Looms; Oracle Up On OpenAI Buzz (Live Coverage)
- Oracle Heads Into Q1 Results With AI Investment, Stargate in Focus, RBC Capital Markets Says
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $480.35 | $365.74 | −24% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $166.00 | $61.46 | −63% |
| Synopsys, Inc SNPS | $442.61 | $101.19 | −77% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | −36% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $105.26 | $71.79 | −32% |
| NetApp, Inc NTAP | $190.64 | $154.83 | −19% |
| Adyen N.V ADYEN | €1,007 | €707.53 | −30% |
| MongoDB, Inc MDB | $440.58 | $93.91 | −79% |
| Okta, Inc OKTA | $166.23 | $30.50 | −82% |
| VeriSign, Inc VRSN | $273.03 | $208.59 | −24% |
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