Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc $37.31, price $249, upside -85.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.68 – $278.86 · fair‑value band $21.13 – $52.25 · the $249.29 price screens above the $37.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 15, 2026.
Follow Crowdstrike Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Crowdstrike Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally. Its unified platform provides cloud-delivered protection of endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data through a software as a service (SaaS) subscription-based model.
Show more
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally. Its unified platform provides cloud-delivered protection of endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data through a software as a service (SaaS) subscription-based model. The company offers corporate endpoint and cloud workload security, managed security, security and vulnerability management, IT operations management, identity protection, threat intelligence, data protection, SaaS security posture management, and AI powered workflow automation, and securing generative AI workload services, as well as security orchestration, automation, and response; and security information and event management, and log management services. It primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules. The company has a strategic alliance with Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation to help enterprises secure artificial intelligence across its lifecycle, from the AI agents and models to the foundational infrastructure that supports the entire AI ecosystem. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock analysis
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) currently trades at $249.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.31, 85.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $41.85 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $249.29 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $21.01, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $21.13 (bear) to $52.25 (bull), the price of $249.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc reported revenue of $4.8B in FY2026 versus $1.5B in FY2022, a compound +34.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$163M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $266B · P/S ratio 49.3 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin −3.4% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.4% · Operating margin −2.3% · Revenue (TTM) $5.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 185% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −85%, CRWD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.90 to $50.03). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$21.13Fair Value $37.31Bull$52.25
Price $249.29 · Upside -85.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0211 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+65.1%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10.6% (2021) → −6.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.0% a year for the price and +17.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Solid innovation and pricing power in cybersecurity form the main strength while negative earnings and a global service outage represent the key weakness.
Main risk: The global service outage forms the biggest risk to customer trust which would hit demand for its subscription services.
CrowdStrike is extending its Falcon platform into the OpenAI Marketplace to secure autonomous AI agents and the agentic enterprise. This builds on its subscription model that now includes token-based pricing for AI detection and response. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will demand for protecting these new AI workloads outpace any reduction in traditional security needs as agents handle more tasks themselves?
Compare Crowdstrike Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 351 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−85.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Return on assets−1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−2.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/S (12 months)49.98× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow205.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG8.40× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 55
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.31 versus a price of $249.29, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CRWD?
Our model-based fair value for Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is $37.31 (as of Oct 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $249.29.
What is the quality score of CRWD?
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.31 (as of Oct 15, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.13, optimistic scenario $52.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Crowdstrike Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.31, about −85% upside versus a price of $249.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.13, optimistic scenario $52.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 15, 2026).
What growth is priced into Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Crowdstrike Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +23.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.6 % per year. As of Oct 15, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRWD use?
Our models discount Crowdstrike Holdings Inc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Crowdstrike Holdings Inc that is +23.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc grew +40.6 % a year. The price currently implies +23.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (+23.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.04 %: that much free cash flow Crowdstrike Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Crowdstrike Holdings Inc it is $37.31 per share (as of Oct 15, 2026), against a price of $249.29. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Crowdstrike Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 15, 2026, CRWD trades above its calculated fair value: price $249.29, fair value $37.31, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRWD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($249.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.31). For Crowdstrike Holdings Inc the two are $211.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Crowdstrike Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Crowdstrike Holdings Inc at about $266B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 15, 2026). Per share that is $249.29; our models calculate a fair value of $37.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRWD?
Our models span a range for Crowdstrike Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $21.13, base $37.31, optimistic $52.25 per share (as of Oct 15, 2026, price $249.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CRWD?
The PEG ratio of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is 8.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 15, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (as of Oct 15, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRWD from its 52-week high?
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc trades at $249.29, about 11% below its 52-week high of $278.86 and 185% above the low of $87.56 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Crowdstrike Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Fortinet, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Crowdstrike Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 15, 2026: price $249.29, calculated fair value $37.31 (−85%), Quality Score 50/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRWD calculated?
We run Crowdstrike Holdings Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $37.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Crowdstrike Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $249.29. Our model-based fair value is $37.31, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Crowdstrike Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($52.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($21.13 to $52.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The market capitalisation of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is $266B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is 49.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Earnings per share at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc are $0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The net margin of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is −3.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is −2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The operating margin of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Revenue at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Earnings per share at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc are growing +533% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) hold?
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $4.4B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Crowdstrike Holdings Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Crowdstrike Holdings Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Oct 15, 2026