Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc $37.31, price $260, upside -85.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $37.31 · Strongly overvalued (−86%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +40.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(1/11)
!Narrow moat41/100
!Insider activity42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.68 – $262.49 · fair‑value band $21.13 – $52.25 · the $259.67 price screens above the $37.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 25, 2026.
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CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally. Its unified platform provides cloud-delivered protection of endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data through a software as a service (SaaS) subscription-based model.
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CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions in the United States and internationally. Its unified platform provides cloud-delivered protection of endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data through a software as a service (SaaS) subscription-based model. The company offers corporate endpoint and cloud workload security, managed security, security and vulnerability management, IT operations management, identity protection, threat intelligence, data protection, SaaS security posture management, and AI powered workflow automation, and securing generative AI workload services, as well as security orchestration, automation, and response; and security information and event management, and log management services. It primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules. The company has a strategic alliance with Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation to help enterprises secure artificial intelligence across its lifecycle, from the AI agents and models to the foundational infrastructure that supports the entire AI ecosystem. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock analysis
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) currently trades at $259.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.31, implying the stock looks roughly 595.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $41.85 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $259.67 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $21.01, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $21.13 (bear) to $52.25 (bull), the price of $259.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc reported revenue of $4.8B in FY2026 versus $1.5B in FY2022, a compound +34.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$163M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $266B · P/S ratio 49.3 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin −3.4% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.4% · Operating margin −2.3% · Revenue (TTM) $5.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 197% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −86%, CRWD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.90 to $50.03). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $21.13Fair Value $37.31Bull $52.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0195 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+65.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10.6% (2021) → −6.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+19.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.8% a year for the price and +16.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Crowdstrike Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−86% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets−1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)49.27× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF202.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG8.40× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.31 versus a price of $259.67, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CRWD?
Our model-based fair value for Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is $37.31 (as of Sep 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $259.67.
What is the quality score of CRWD?
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.31 (as of Sep 25, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.13, optimistic scenario $52.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Crowdstrike Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.31, about −86% upside versus a price of $259.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.13, optimistic scenario $52.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Crowdstrike Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +24.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.6 % per year. As of Sep 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CRWD use?
Our models discount Crowdstrike Holdings Inc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Crowdstrike Holdings Inc that is +24.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc grew +40.6 % a year. The price currently implies +24.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (+24.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.95 %: that much free cash flow Crowdstrike Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Crowdstrike Holdings Inc it is $37.31 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026), against a price of $259.67. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Crowdstrike Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 25, 2026, CRWD trades above its calculated fair value: price $259.67, fair value $37.31, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CRWD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($259.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.31). For Crowdstrike Holdings Inc the two are $222.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Crowdstrike Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Crowdstrike Holdings Inc at about $266B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 25, 2026). Per share that is $259.67; our models calculate a fair value of $37.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CRWD?
Our models span a range for Crowdstrike Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $21.13, base $37.31, optimistic $52.25 per share (as of Sep 25, 2026, price $259.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CRWD?
The PEG ratio of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is 8.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (as of Sep 25, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CRWD from its 52-week high?
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc trades at $259.67, about 1% below its 52-week high of $262.49 and 197% above the low of $87.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Crowdstrike Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Crowdstrike Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 25, 2026: price $259.67, calculated fair value $37.31 (−86%), Quality Score 49/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CRWD calculated?
We run Crowdstrike Holdings Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $37.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Crowdstrike Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $259.67. Our model-based fair value is $37.31, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Crowdstrike Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($52.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($21.13 to $52.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The market capitalisation of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is $266B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is 49.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Earnings per share at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc are $0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The net margin of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is −3.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is −2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
The operating margin of Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Revenue at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)?
Earnings per share at Crowdstrike Holdings Inc are growing +533% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) hold?
Crowdstrike Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $4.4B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 25, 2026